The ballistic missile North Korea successfully tested on May 14 appears to be a new, more potent addition to the country's rapidly expanding arsenal. The missile, which North Korean state media is calling the Hwasong-12, was launched at a steep angle from the country's western coast. It flew approximately 700 kilometers (around 430 miles) and reached an apogee of an estimated 2,000 kilometers before splashing down in the Sea of Japan some 140 kilometers from the Russian port city of Vladivostok.
Given the parameters of the flight, the Hwasong-12 is likely the longest-range ballistic missile the North Koreans have successfully tested so far, excluding space launch vehicles. If it had been launched at a trajectory intended to maximize its range, the missile likely would have traveled farther than 4,000 kilometers. This places it squarely within the Pentagon's definition of an intermediate-range ballistic missile — and, more important, would make it capable of potentially striking U.S. bases in Guam.
Like the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile North Korea has been attempting to develop (mostly unsuccessfully), the Hwasong-12 is liquid-fueled and uses the same transporter erector launcher, a mobile launch platform. Judging by the test flight and by photos and footage of the missile released May 14 by North Korean state media, however, the missile appears to be more closely related to North Korea's Hwasong-13 — an intercontinental ballistic missile still in development.
The success of the Hwasong-12 test marks a key step in Pyongyang's effort to develop longer-range missiles — and particularly its aim to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile. Though numerous North Korean missile tests have failed in recent years, each failure has provided lessons that, over time, have substantially built up Pyongyang's missile expertise. Considering the growing frequency of the missile tests, it is clear that North Korea will continue to reach new milestones in its missile program.
Notably, the test took place as China's landmark Belt and Road summit was kicking off in Beijing, and amid Beijing's escalated economic measures against Pyongyang. North Korea recently warned that China's pressure and cooperation with the United States would "cross the red line." But despite noticeably worse relations and Washington's pressure in trade and other areas of competition, Beijing will likely avoid pushing Pyongyang too far — a scenario that would further undermine Chinese influence in any dialogue, not to mention alienate the hostile and militarily dangerous North Korea on its doorstep. China invited delegations from both North Korea and South Korea to the summit. But the move has elicited criticism from Washington, which believes Beijing's move has undermined its effort to isolate the government in Pyongyang.
As Washington's patience wears thin, Beijing may find its freedom to manage the situation narrowing. As Pyongyang shows no intention of halting its nuclear program, it will keep testing the current era of cooperation between the United States and China. Moreover, it will serve as a significant test of the new South Korean president's resolve to pursue a dialogue with the North.
