In a rare show of North Korean defiance toward China, a commentary published in North Korean state media warned China that it was crossing a "red line" in its efforts to pressure North Korea to discontinue its nuclear weapons program. This direct criticism followed a series of North Korean criticisms that, while not naming China directly, came as Beijing stepped up economic measures targeting Pyongyang. In response to the broadside at China issued May 4, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stressed its efforts to maintain good relations as it continued to urge all sides to remain calm, "stop irritating each other" and return to the negotiation table.
China's recent actions, including reportedly turning back a fleet of North Korean coal ships to make good on its promises to suspend imports of the key commodity and threatening to limit oil exports if Pyongyang proceeds with its nuclear weapons testing, have gotten Pyongyang's attention. After all, coal exports provide an important source of foreign income and China provides some 75 to 90 percent of North Korea's oil supply. But it has not led to an indication that Pyongyang is ready to give up its nuclear ambitions.
The United States has used a combination of offers of trade concessions and threats of secondary sanctions on Chinese companies doing business with North Korea to press Beijing to intensify its efforts to derail the North's nuclear weapons and missile development programs. But given Pyongyang's increasing defiance of its most important ally, the limits of China's ability to stop it from developing a credible nuclear deterrent without risking destabilizing the government are showing. But its recent efforts do appear to have temporarily cooled tension on the Korean Peninsula.
With a flurry of activity at its Punggye-ri test site in April, North Korea had appeared on the verge of carrying out its sixth nuclear weapons test, but weeks later, it has yet to trigger a blast. Washington, meanwhile, appears to be deemphasizing its threat to exercise military options and is instead prioritizing diplomatic efforts and a combination of sanctions to try to bend Pyongyang to its will. Given North Korea's resistance to past economic pressure and international isolation and its ability to circumvent past sanctions, even the newest Chinese efforts may not be enough to prevent the North from continuing on its nuclearization course or to convince it to enter into a dialogue on Washington's terms.
As Washington's patience wears thin, Beijing may find its freedom to manage the situation narrowing. China will need to balance U.S. pressure while having to avoid pushing Pyongyang too far — a scenario that would further undermine Chinese influence, not to mention alienate a hostile and militarily dangerous North Korea right on its doorstep. But even if Beijing did manage to ease Pyongyang back from its missile and nuclear course, Washington could still target China economically and in other areas of competition.
North Korea will keep testing the current era of cooperation between the United States and China, and if their detente hits its limits, the United States has several cards to play, including arms sales to Taiwan and deployments in the South China Sea, to up the ante in their broader geopolitical contest.
