Aureliano Carbonell, a negotiator for Colombia's National Liberation Army (ELN), says the rebel group will not submit itself to the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP), the legal framework for transitional justice courts that will play a pivotal role in the demobilization of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). If it holds to this position, the ELN would likely seek to develop its own amnesty mechanisms in peace talks with Bogota, a development that could jeopardize negotiations.

When it comes to reaching a peace deal with the ELN, the clock is ticking. With elections pending in 2018, there is the possibility that talks may not be complete by the time a new government, possibly one ideologically opposed to an ELN peace deal, takes power. If the ELN insists on remaining out of the JEP, it would need to negotiate a new amnesty framework, a time-consuming process that could engender legal challenges that further delay progress.

It is unclear exactly why the ELN objects to the JEP, which will not only grant amnesty to FARC members but also to state security forces suspected of committing criminal actions during the course of its insurgency. There is the possibility that the group is divided on the subject, as some of its members would face sentencing if they submit themselves to the courts and do not receive amnesty. The ELN has also shown other signs of intransigence in its talks. It has not fulfilled a government condition on starting the talks by continuing to hold Odin Sanchez, a former member of the lower house of Congress, hostage in Choco department. The rebels have apparently demanded and received a ransom payment before considering his release.

Portions of the ELN may not be convinced that talks with the government are in its best interests, since limited time remains to seal an agreement with the current government. The rebels may be trying to exploit the possibility of talks to extract as much compensation as possible (such as ransom payments) from selective releases of hostages it holds. If the talks fail either because of rebel actions or the unwillingness of a new government to pursue them, companies and individuals in the departments of Norte de Santander, Casanare, Arauca, Bolivar, Putumayo and Narino will be at risk of persistent ELN attacks and extortion.