For months, the front lines of Yemen's civil war have been fairly stagnant. But on Jan. 7, Yemeni troops backed by Emirati forces began to advance on the city of Dhubab, near the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The stated objective of the operation, known as "Golden Arrow," is to secure Yemen's western coastline in Taiz province in the hope of blocking any further arms deliveries to Houthi rebels and supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh. However, the offensive will also greatly reduce the risk of anti-ship missile attacks against vessels transiting the waters off Yemen's coast.

Airstrikes in Dhubab by the Saudi-led coalition began to intensify in the last week of December 2016. Coupled with separate reports of the Emirati air force's frequent use of precision-guided munitions in the area, these attacks seem to have been part of a preparatory air operation ahead of the ground assault on the city. Despite these efforts, however, Yemeni and Emirati forces have suffered substantial losses in men and materiel since moving in on Dhubab. According to unconfirmed reports, Houthi fighters have already destroyed as many as 15 armored vehicles in the offensive. Some claims also suggest that Houthi snipers have targeted several high-ranking officers among their opponents' troops.

The offensive is moving forward in spite of these losses. The main unit of Operation Golden Arrow has circumvented Dhubab and is now pushing farther north toward the city of Mocha. Its progress has been slowed considerably by land mines that Houthi fighters and Saleh loyalists laid north of Dhubab, as well as by staunch resistance near several military positions in the area. Nevertheless, Yemeni troops and their Emirati backers have committed a considerable number of forces to the operation, and five full brigades are reportedly engaged in the fight.

Though the true intentions behind the offensive are still unknown, the descriptions that have been released suggest that troops do not plan to move much farther beyond Mocha. Therefore, it is unlikely that the march will continue north to free the larger port city of al-Hudaydah. But the operation will have an impact on the areas around Dhubab and Mocha. Recent anti-ship missile attacks against Emirati, Saudi and U.S. naval vessels as well as an Iranian-flagged cargo ship allegedly originated in these regions. Gaining control over Taiz province's coastline will help prevent similar attacks along the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the future, making the waters much safer for civilian shipping and naval vessels supporting operations conducted in Yemen.

Meanwhile, front lines located elsewhere in Yemen have remained relatively stable. Government and coalition forces have made some small advances, particularly in the city of Taiz and near Bayhan. Should Operation Golden Arrow prove successful, it could help government-aligned troops in Taiz secure more victories. However, fighting in the country's mountainous regions will progress more slowly than in the flat coastal lands. Overall, the Saudi-led coalition continues to make gradual but steady gains, though the limited commitment of the coalition's members has dragged out its operations. The alliance's persistent pressure on Houthi fighters and Saleh loyalists has exacerbated the pre-existing tensions between the two groups: Over the past month, the Houthis have been at odds with Saleh's supporters, particularly the Republican Guard. Such frictions are likely to worsen while the rebels' situation remains dire.

Beyond the protracted conflict in Yemen's central mountains and on its western coast, signs of stability are beginning to emerge in other parts of the country. Just last week, Glencore — a large international crude oil trader — arranged for an oil tanker to transport a shipment from an unknown Yemeni terminal as early as Jan. 15. (The terminal is most likely located in Ash Shihr, where the Yemeni government sold 3 million barrels of crude to Glencore last summer.) These continuing oil exports, though few and far between, indicate some level of confidence in the stability of Yemen's Hadramawt region, including the cities of Mukalla and Ash Shihr. Oil shipments ground to a halt in early 2015 when the Saudi-led coalition intervened in Yemen. But now that Yemeni troops and their allies have regained control over Mukalla and its surrounding region from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and a second crude sale has been made, it appears that the Yemeni oil sector is beginning to come back online.