Romania's parliamentary elections are over, but another period of complex political haggling is about to begin. The center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD) won the Dec. 11 vote with about 46 percent of the public's support, polling well ahead of the center-right National Liberal Party (which only received 20 percent of the vote) but coming up short of a legislative majority. Now, the Social Democrats will probably look to a small party such as the Liberal Democratic Alliance, which secured roughly 6 percent of the vote, to form a governing coalition. But regardless of which party they choose to partner with, the Social Democrats will have a hard time appointing a prime minister while their leader, Liviu Dragnea, is technically barred from office as he serves a suspended sentence for engaging in electoral fraud.
Because Romania is a semi-presidential state, its prime minister and president share the responsibilities of governing. Prior to the vote, center-right President Klaus Iohannis declared that he would not accept a prime minister burdened by legal troubles. The announcement has put the country in a sticky situation. On one hand, the Romanian constitution requires the president to select a prime minister from the party or coalition with the most seats in parliament. On the other, Romanian law prohibits those with criminal convictions from being appointed to government posts.
In the wake of the PSD's overwhelming victory, Iohannis will have no choice but to select a prime minister from the party. However, the Social Democrats may have to put forth a different candidate. If the party and president cannot reach a compromise, Romania will sink into political crisis. Some members of the PSD have already hinted at trying to impeach Iohannis, and though they are unlikely to follow through with their threat, they would not be the first Romanian lawmakers to try to oust a president for their own party's gain. In fact, friction between Romania's presidents and prime ministers has become fairly common as center-right presidents have had to share power with center-left parliaments.
Meanwhile, corruption continues to be a concern for Romanian citizens. Less than 40 percent of voters participated in the Dec. 11 elections, thanks in large part to rising dissatisfaction with the country's politicians as corruption and infighting plague Romanian institutions. For now, fighting corruption and tamping down on public spending will be the most immediate problems facing the new government. But addressing voters' disenchantment with traditional political parties will be a long-term concern. Such discontent creates fertile ground for the growth of anti-establishment movements that could someday challenge the political status quo. Though mainstream parties swept the Dec. 11 vote, Romania will not be immune to the wave of anti-establishment and Euroskeptic sentiment that is gaining momentum elsewhere in Europe forever.
Nevertheless, Romania is fully committed to its EU and NATO memberships at the moment. Most of the country's political parties are worried about Russia's growing assertiveness and want to maintain strong ties with the United States. Consequently, Bucharest's foreign policy will not change much as a result of the elections, no matter how its prime ministerial predicament plays out. Yet as the eurozone encounters one problem after the next, Romania's interest in joining the currency union will fade. With Western Europe showing more interest in limiting the free movement of people on the Continent than expanding it, Romania's membership in the passport-free Schengen area will likewise remain elusive. And as uncertainty continues to surround the future of EU and NATO commitments, Romania will turn to its neighbors to bolster its defenses.
