The window to negotiate a peace deal with the Colombian government is closing quickly for the country's insurgencies, and the National Liberation Army (ELN) appears determined not to miss it. On Oct. 10, government and ELN officials announced that they would open peace talks in Ecuador on Oct. 27. However, the first round of negotiations will not begin until Nov. 3.

The ELN statement comes a little over a week after Colombian voters rejected Bogota's demobilization deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in a tightly contested referendum. The slim majority of Colombian citizens who won the vote want FARC leaders to pay for their crimes. If, however, the FARC is able to bargain with Bogota and secure a guarantee of amnesty and political participation for its leaders, the ELN will have a better chance of negotiating a similarly satisfactory deal in the months ahead. The ELN, aware that the referendum was a setback in the FARC's peace talks, is banking on the larger insurgency's success to ensure its own down the road.

But time is running out for both groups to reach an agreement with the government. Colombia's campaign season will heat up in mid-2017 ahead of presidential and legislative elections in 2018. Should talks with the FARC stall before then, President Juan Manuel Santos' political rivals could use the lack of progress to turn popular opinion against Santos' party — and against the peace process he has struggled to put forward.