For over a year, politicians opposed to the Brazilian president have been lobbying for her impeachment. Now those efforts will culminate in a series of votes that could alter the country's political trajectory. On April 15, Brazil's lower house of congress will begin a two-day vote on President Dilma Rousseff's future in office, to be followed by a Senate vote and, potentially, an impeachment trial. The entire politically charged process is taking place as Brazil enters its second year of economic recession, and the country's leaders are already beginning to posture in anticipation of the 2018 presidential election. Amid the political jockeying, many of Rousseff's key allies have abandoned her, weakening her government on the eve of the impeachment vote.

A Brazilian court decision last year set the stage for Rousseff's current predicament. Judges ruled that Rousseff's alleged manipulation of the national budget gave lawmakers legal grounds to begin impeachment proceedings. As the lower house convenes April 15-17 to vote on her removal, the process risks stirring up political unrest. Should the Senate then vote to impeach Rousseff, pro- and anti-government demonstrators could take to the streets, raising the possibility of at least some political confrontation and violence in major cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Brasilia. Recently, Rousseff has tried to frame the situation as a political coup against her rule by Vice President Michel Temer, suggesting that the president wants to portray her possible removal as an anti-government conspiracy. On Thursday, as a last legal resort, the president appealed to Brazil's supreme court.

But Rousseff's rhetoric notwithstanding, an impeachment vote may not inspire major violence. In the weeks leading up to the lower house decision to open the impeachment vote, the Workers' Party failed to mobilize significant demonstrations. Moreover, if Rousseff is impeached, immediately calling for prolonged demonstrations is likely not in her best interest because doing so could set Brazil on a path toward greater political upset and economic disruption. Instead, over the next few days, the president will likely court as many undecided legislators as possible to try to avert a successful impeachment vote. To do so, she needs only 172 of the house's 513 representatives on her side.

If the impeachment passes in both houses, a new government would be in place within a matter of months, headed by Temer. Temer, along with sections of his Democratic Movement Party of Brazil (PMDB) and the Social Democracy Party of Brazil (PSDB), is already negotiating with this outcome in mind. As the largest and second-largest political blocs in the lower house, PMDB and PSDB would figure prominently in any new government. Members of the two parties have already drawn up a list of legislative measures that Temer's administration would pursue in the coming years if appointed in Rousseff's stead following a successful Senate impeachment vote.

Because Brazil is mired in an economic crisis, major cost-cutting measures such as pension reform would be a priority for a new administration. Other potential legislative moves include simplifying Brazil's complicated tax code and further liberalizing hydrocarbon exploration and production. Finally, electoral reforms that would raise the legal threshold for forming a political party — a priority for some, given the proliferation of parties in the legislature — are also planned. A government led by the PMDB and PSDB would aspire to pass such measures. But their success would depend on whether the parties' alliance will be large enough to overrule the Workers' Party and its smaller allies, which will remain in congress until the 2018 elections regardless of Rousseff's fate.

Furthermore, Rousseff's impeachment would not bring an end to political turmoil in the country. Brazil's Electoral Court is currently investigating allegations that Temer received donations obtained through illicit activities related to the Petrobras corruption scandal during his 2014 race for re-election as vice president. If the court were to rule against Temer while he was in office, he would have to step down, and new elections would be called within 90 days. Early elections could upend the Brazilian political landscape. Marina Silva, a left-of-center politician formerly associated with the Brazilian Socialist Party, is a viable presidential candidate, as is PSDB Sen. Aecio Neves (although Neves, too, may face corruption charges). Despite former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's enduring popularity in Brazil, his criminal investigation and the collapsing popularity of the Workers' Party could limit his appeal in an eventual national election. But thanks to the continued support of his followers, wider protests could erupt if da Silva is arrested as a result of the investigation.

Even if the impeachment process concludes swiftly and Brazil weathers the political transition away from the Workers' Party, the country will still have its recession to overcome in the next few years. In the wake of the Petrobras investigation and with lower commodity prices abroad than during Brazil's China-driven economic boom, growth is expected to remain slower than in previous years. Nonetheless, Brazilian agribusiness exports have risen, and foreign direct investment has continued, spurred by Brazil's weakening currency. Additionally, Brazil has been more successful recently in finding new markets for its non-commodity exports. So despite the country's economic and political strife, there is hope for Brazil on the horizon.

 

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