Brazil's ruling Workers' Party lost its main political ally, the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), on March 29, and the timing could not be worse for President Dilma Rousseff. The PMDB's decision to leave the government considerably increases the chances of Rousseff's impeachment being approved by the lower house, where the party has the most seats.
The impeachment process against Rousseff, who is accused of violating the country's fiscal responsibility law, resumed the week of March 21 after the Supreme Court ruled on the proper procedure by which to remove the president. This month the lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, formed a special commission tasked with offering a recommendation by April 14 on whether to proceed with the impeachment. The matter will go to a plenary vote regardless of what the commission recommends, but the commission's decision could be an indicator of how the lower house as a whole will vote. And according to a survey conducted by the newspaper Valor, at least 32 of 65 members on the special commission support impeachment, and of four undecided members, at least three tend to vote with the opposition.
Lower house proceedings are supposed to conclude before May. For the proceedings to reach the Senate, at least two-thirds of the Chamber of Deputies (342 of 513 congressmen) must approve the impeachment. Rousseff would then have to step down for up to 180 days while the Senate evaluates the impeachment, though the Senate may take less time, concluding by the end of May or beginning of June.
The PMDB's exit could influence other political parties that make up Rousseff's base to leave the ruling coalition and vote to approve impeachment. The Progressive Party, the Social Democratic Party and the Party of the Republic will all meet in the coming days to decide whether to leave the government. Together, the parties have 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while the PMDB has 69 seats.
According to opposition congressman Mendonca Filho, these votes combined with the votes from opposition political parties and other dissidents from the ruling coalition could reach 350, which would be enough to approve impeachment. The government believes it still has around 190 votes, however, enough to impede the proceedings. There are still many undecided congressmen, perhaps more than 100, who will vote based on how things develop politically in the coming weeks.
The PMDB's decision is also important because the party president, Michel Temer, is also Rousseff's vice president. If Rousseff were impeached, Temer would assume the presidency. The PMDB would then have some leverage to negotiate for the support of parties from Rousseff's political base as well as the opposition. Temer is already meeting with opposition political leaders, such as Brazilian Social Democratic Party President Aecio Neves, in case he assumes the presidency.
But the PMDB did not easily reach a consensus to break away from the government. There are still congressmen from the states of Alagoas and Amazonas, such as Senate President Renan Calheiros, who support Rousseff's political coalition in Congress. The government will try to pry away a few members of the PMDB to vote against impeachment. Also, the Brazilian federal police investigations have shown that many PMDB members were involved in the Petrobras corruption scandal as well, possibly including Temer himself. Still, the PMDB's decision to leave the ruling coalition has significantly raised the chances of the Chamber of Deputies and Senate approving Rousseff's impeachment by the end of May or early June. Until then, both the government and the opposition will be battling for the support of the undecided in Congress.
