In Spain, Catalan Independence Comes at a Cost

There are several key players in the Catalan elections and in the decision on the community's independence from Spain:

Together for Yes: An alliance between Catalonia's ruling conservative Democratic Convergence party and the left-wing Republican Left, Together for Yes also includes smaller political and social organizations. It is the main political force pushing for independence. In early September, Together for Yes presented a roadmap that foresees independence within 18 months.
Popular Unity Candidacy (known by its Catalan acronym, CUP): CUP is a small left-wing party that also supports independence. It is not a member of Together for Yes for several reasons, most notably because of ideological differences with Democratic Convergence. CUP has said it wants an immediate and unilateral declaration of independence after the elections. It has also said it will not support a government led by current Catalan President Artur Mas.
Ciudadanos: A centrist party that opposes independence from Spain, Ciudadanos supports "the third way," which means negotiating with Madrid for greater autonomy.
Catalan Socialist Party: The Catalan Socialist Party is the Catalan branch of the Socialist Workers' Party, Spain's traditional center-left party. Like Ciudadanos, it proposes more autonomy for Catalonia.
Catalonia is Possible: A left-wing alliance that includes Podemos and other progressive forces from Catalonia, Catalonia is Possible's position on independence is ambiguous. The alliance has said people should have the right to decide their future but denied that independence is an immediate necessity.
The Madrid government: Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has repeatedly said Catalonia will not become independent. In the coming days, his Popular Party will approve a law to give more power to the Spanish Constitutional Court and will soon pass a law giving the central government the power to bypass the parliament and temporarily suspend the autonomy of a region during emergencies.

The Roadmap

According to the roadmap Together for Yes recently presented, independence would be a step-by-step process.

After the elections, the Catalan parliament would issue a "solemn proclamation of the beginning of the independence process." It is important to note that this would not be a declaration of independence, only a declaration of intent. Mas has said this proclamation would be made in October. While the proclamation would not have immediate legal consequences, the Spanish Constitutional Court could block it.

After the solemn declaration, the Catalan government would try to negotiate with Madrid to produce a soft transition and with the European Union to remain in the bloc. Madrid would probably refuse to negotiate with Catalonia, at least until the general elections in December. EU officials have said that an independent Catalonia would not automatically become an EU member and that it would have to apply for membership again.

The next step on the roadmap would be for Catalonia to begin drafting a constitution. Simultaneously, Catalonia would begin creating state institutions, including a central bank, a foreign ministry and an army. At an unspecified point, Catalonia would officially declare independence. Then, when the constitution is complete, Catalonia would hold a referendum to ratify it.

The Debates

The pro-independence camp is far from united. Together for Yes includes a business-friendly party that introduced austerity measures during the economic crisis and a left-wing party that supports greater public spending. The CUP, meanwhile, has heavily criticized Mas' government for approving spending cuts and tax hikes. These groups will probably struggle to reach common ground when creating an independent state.

The pro-independence forces believe the elections will give democratic legitimacy to the independence process, but they disagree on what that legitimacy should look like. Catalan electoral law allows for parties winning less than 50 percent of the popular vote to obtain an absolute majority of seats in parliament (opinion polls indicate that this is a likely scenario). According to Mas, a majority in the regional parliament would be enough to start the independence process. However, the CUP thinks legitimacy would come if the pro-independence camp won more than 50 percent of the popular vote.

The Scenarios

Stratfor does not forecast election outcomes, but the vote could set in motion three main scenarios.

Scenario 1: Pro-independence parties fail to win a majority of seats in the regional parliament. In this scenario, Together for Yes and the CUP fail to win the 68 seats needed to control a majority. This could lead to new elections, because while the pro-independence camp would collapse, the anti-independence camp is so fragmented that it would probably fail to form a government.

Scenario 2: Pro-independence parties win a majority of seats in parliament, but not a majority of the popular vote. This is the most complex scenario. If Together for Yes won more than 68 seats, it would form a government alone. If it failed to win 68 seats, it would need support from the CUP. This would open the door to two possible subscenarios:

The CUP decides not to support the government. This could happen because of differences over the independence roadmap or because of political problems between the CUP and Democratic Convergence. In this case, new elections would likely be held.
The CUP decides to support the government. In this case, the Catalan parliament would be ready to pass a "solemn declaration" to begin the independence process.

Scenario 3: Pro-independence parties win a majority of seats in parliament and a majority of the popular vote. This would probably accelerate Catalonia's push for independence because the pro-independence camp would feel it obtained the democratic legitimacy it needed to declare independence. Although a unilateral and immediate declaration of independence would still be unlikely in this scenario, the roadmap could be shortened if the secessionist camp won by a landslide.

A Symptom of Something Bigger

If a pro-independence government were formed, the Catalan parliament would pass a political declaration announcing the beginning of the independence process. Even though it would not be an actual declaration of independence, it would complicate the region's dialogue with Madrid. Rajoy would be under pressure from conservative forces within his government to act. Moreover, a direct challenge from the Catalan government could strengthen centralist sentiments in the rest of Spain, leading to higher support for the ruling Popular Party and reducing Rajoy's interest in reaching an accommodation with Catalonia.

Madrid's natural reaction to an independence proclamation would be to take the issue to the Constitutional Court, as it did with the independence referendum in 2014. In the next few days, the Spanish government plans to approve a constitutional reform that will give more powers to the Constitutional Court. The new powers will enable the court to impose financial sanctions on regional governments and, more important, to dismiss officials who violate the constitution. From Madrid's point of view, the measures will ensure that the Constitutional Court will be strong enough to act even if the central government in Madrid is weak (which could be the case after the general elections in December). Should there be a ruling by the Constitutional Court, and should the Catalan government ignore it, Madrid would face the difficult question of whether to suspend Catalonia's autonomy.

Catalonia's push for independence is notable because it reveals the extent to which the economic crisis in Spain is threatening both its political system and its territorial integrity. Independence sentiments have appeared intermittently in Catalonia over the centuries, but the economic crisis exacerbated secessionist demands because many Catalans believe the region contributes more to Spain than it gets in return. This is occurring as anti-establishment parties such as Podemos and Ciudadanos are challenging the supremacy of Spain's traditional parties and demanding a reconfiguration of Spain's centralist system to introduce federal reforms. Even if Catalonia is unlikely to become independent anytime soon, this political process will have long-term repercussions for Spain because it calls the country's entire constitutional system into question.