Mas first formally called for the Nov. 9 referendum in late September. Only a few hours later, the central government in Madrid filed to block the referendum in the Constitutional Court, automatically making the vote illegal. The forthcoming court ruling has led to conflicting opinions within the Catalan leadership: Some moderate sectors of the ruling Convergence and Union party asked for a suspension or postponement of the referendum, but members of the left-wing Republican Left demanded that the referendum be held irrespective of the Constitutional Court ruling. The Republican Left is not formally a member of Mas' government, but supports it in the regional parliament.
Mas' most recent decision reflects the conflicting pressure he is under, and is the kind of political compromise he hopes will appease both sides. The so-called consultation scheduled for Nov. 9 will give Catalans the chance to vote but will not challenge the Spanish Constitutional Court. However, it remains to be seen whether there will be substantial popular participation in a vote with no concrete outcome. Unable to reach an agreement with Madrid on the referendum, Catalonia wants to create some degree of popular legitimacy around the independence issue through a vote with massive levels of popular support, but this non-binding survey will probably have lower levels of turnout than a formal independence referendum. And still, Madrid could block the vote. After Mas' speech, Spanish Minister of Justice Rafael Catala warned that if Barcelona used the same questions in the non-binding consultation that it would have used in the referendum, Madrid would once again take the issue to the Constitutional Court.
The Fever for Independence Will Not Subside
Catalonia has long demanded greater autonomy from the Spanish central government, and some sectors have openly defended independence. While these demands are centuries old, the Spanish economic crisis made the relationship between Barcelona and Madrid particularly tense, and the Catalan government began to more fervently argue that it contributed more to the Spanish state than it received. Moderate members of the Catalan establishment have always demanded more control over Catalonia's taxes, but the economic crisis led the groups to demand outright secession.
This widespread sentiment prompted Mas to change his government's rhetoric — from demanding greater fiscal autonomy to proposing an independence referendum. Hoping to get additional support from voters, Mas called early elections in late 2012, but the result was not what he expected. Mas' Convergence and Union lost seats to the Republican Left, which openly advocated making Catalonia an independent country. Republican Left leader Oriol Junqueras even defended the idea of declaring independence unilaterally and in early October said that "civilian disobedience" would be acceptable should Madrid block the Catalan referendum. After his meeting with Mas on Oct. 13, Junqueras said his party would begin building a majority in parliament so it could declare independence. During the Oct. 14 press conference, Mas acknowledged he did not know whether the Republican Left would still support his government.
This complex political scenario means that the conflict is far from over within the Catalan establishment: Mas' decision to replace the referendum with a non-binding consultation will ease the relationship with Madrid but increase tensions with the pro-independence camp in Catalonia. As a result, pro-independence groups will likely stage protests and call for early elections. Popular support for the Republican Left remains at record-high levels and the issue of Catalan independence will shape Catalan politics — and the region's relationship with Madrid — for years to come.
The fight over independence continues at a time when the Spanish state is going through an identity crisis. Spain's mountainous geography led to the emergence of different population pockets, which evolved in relative isolation from one another, developing strong senses of regional and local identity. Over the past five centuries, governments in Madrid have built a centralized state, which has faced resistance from some of the regions that make up the country.
When Francisco Franco's dictatorship came to an end, most of Spain's political parties signed a new constitution that created a delicate balance between the central government in Madrid and Spain's newly created autonomous regions, each afforded different degrees of political freedom. At the same time, the post-dictatorship political system was built around two large national parties, the center-right Popular Party and the center-left Socialist Party (both coexist with smaller, regional parties).
The model, however, is currently in jeopardy, because two regions — Catalonia and the Basque Country — continue to call for greater autonomy and ultimately independence. Spain's economic crisis and continued corruption scandals have further led to the emergence of a leftist anti-system party, Podemos, which is challenging the supremacy of the established parties in Madrid. Finally, the recent passing of the crown from King Juan Carlos to his son, Felipe, has reopened contentious debate about the place of a monarchy in modern politics. It is clear that many of the problems leading to a civil war in the 1930s are still present in modern Spain. Though Madrid assuredly will not submit to another civil war, the historical divides persist, shaping Spain's present and future — and providing for some interesting political maneuverings.
