Saudi state television reported late Tuesday that the Saudi-led coalition has begun a new phase in its Yemen operation, shifting from Operation Decisive Storm to a much more optimistic-sounding Operation Restoring Hope. The Saudis are enacting more than a name change with this announcement; they are laying the groundwork for a negotiated settlement. The role Iran will actually end up playing in such a settlement is still quite dubious, however.
To back up the "mission accomplished" declaration, the Saudi announcement included a checklist of military objectives, from establishing air supremacy to destroying heavy weapons and missile stockpiles. The Saudi-led coalition spokesperson, Brig. Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, said the emphasis of the new mission would be on interdicting military movements by Houthi forces, rebuilding Yemen and protecting civilians through security and counterterrorism efforts. However, the naval blockade would be maintained and airstrikes could continue.
Stratfor maintained early on that the constraints on the Saudi mission in Yemen — including reluctance within the coalition about rallying forces for a ground intervention and the sheer complexity of battling and balancing against Yemen's numerous bellicose factions — meant that the conflict would eventually culminate in a negotiated settlement, albeit a wobbly one. The objective of the military campaign would be to militarily weaken the Houthis and forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh to the point that at least one of these sides could be brought to the negotiating table. Oman was the ideal mediator for such a negotiation, having opted out of the military campaign to preserve its neutrality. Sure enough, hints of backchannel talks taking place in Muscat emerged within days of the start of the bombing campaign.
As the weeks passed, the air campaign proved effective in destroying the more worrying heavy weapons within reach of Houthi and pro-Saleh forces. Moreover, Saleh began quiet discussions with Saudi Arabia over what a negotiated settlement might look like. How far those negotiations have progressed is still unclear. They seem, however, to have advanced to a point where the Saudis felt comfortable in launching the next phase of the mission, which, according to the Saudi declaration, includes restoring Yemen's security and stability by establishing a political process.
But bringing security and stability back to Yemen will be a long, difficult and expensive process. The country is in a severe humanitarian crisis, its national infrastructure has been badly damaged, and its already troubled economic situation is now measurably worse. As the Americans have learned in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, it is always easier to bomb things than it is to build them.
We can assume the Iranians are at least keeping close tabs on the Muscat dialogue. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir Abdollahian revealed as much earlier Tuesday when he said that Iran is optimistic that "in coming hours" military strikes on Yemen will come to a halt and the relevant parties will come to the negotiating table. Still, Iran's direct influence over the negotiations underway is questionable.
Iran may have played a notable role in the past in arming the Houthi-Saleh alliance, but it now faces severe limitations, including a naval blockade of Yemeni ports. Although Iran is sending a naval convoy to Yemeni shores in the face of this blockade, the convoy lacks the air cover to risk a military confrontation with either the United States or Saudi Arabia. As much as Iran would like to be, it is not the game-changer in Yemen in the way it is in Iraq or Syria.
Iran's role in Yemen has largely been relegated to public relations. Tehran has issued a number of messages that altogether aim to shape a narrative whose main theme is that all roads lead to Tehran in the Yemen negotiation. Stratfor in recent days has come across a number of dubious claims transmitted through private Iranian channels. One claim said that Iran is calling the shots over whether the Houthis fire any of the Scud missiles that they have acquired. Another said that Hezbollah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, under Iranian orders, will carry out a coup in Lebanon if the Saudi campaign in Yemen does not end.
These warnings should be taken with a grain of salt. Iran wants to transmit the message that an Iranian deal with the United States means that Saudi Arabia and its allies have no choice but to engage Tehran in a negotiation on Iranian terms. But so far, Saudi Arabia is giving little indication that Iran is forcing its hand. Rather, the military campaign has reached a point where there is less of a tactical requirement to maintain the high volume of strikes targeting specific stationary defense installations or heavy weaponry in the hands of Houthi and Saleh-aligned fighters.
At the same time, a political negotiation now becomes much more desirable, and that negotiation will primarily involve the players within Yemen jockeying over political rights and resumed access to Saudi largesse. Iran will try to take credit for a Yemeni political negotiation. But from the Saudi point of view, it is not a problem that requires Tehran's services.
