The conflict in Ukraine showed more signs of de-escalation on Thursday; for the second straight day, there were no casualties reported in clashes between Ukrainian security forces and pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine's army also announced that it would start withdrawing its heavy weaponry from the front lines, while the rebels claimed to have already removed 80 percent of their military hardware from the line of contact. These developments signal the cease-fire's implementation, but ultimately they are just one aspect among many shaping broader negotiations in the standoff between Russia and the West.
The cease-fire agreement reached on Feb. 12, like previous cease-fire deals in Ukraine, is slow in moving from the negotiation table to the battlefield. Immediately after the deal was reached fighting actually increased in key areas such as Debaltseve, a hotspot of contention between Ukrainian and separatist forces along the line of contact. But once rebel forces decisively took Debaltseve, fighting across the area decreased significantly. Small skirmishes still occur, but it appears that the separatists and their Russian backers are taking the implementation of the cease-fire agreement seriously. There have been no reports of heavy artillery use in the last 24 hours.
However, the conflict in Ukraine, which has been full of escalations and de-escalations, is by no means over. Beyond the immediate conflict in eastern Ukraine, disharmony lingers between Russia and the West over NATO, particularly U.S. plans to beef up its security presence throughout Eastern Europe. An outstanding concern for Moscow is the establishment of NATO Force Integration Units in Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic states, as well as the planned Very High Readiness Joint Task Force that could be permanently deployed in Poland. The West appears determined to carry out these plans regardless of how the conflict in Ukraine shapes up.
Another issue, more fluid and subject to negotiation, is the training of Ukrainian security forces and weapons deliveries to the Ukrainian military. Referring to U.S. plans to train Ukrainian security forces in March, Supreme Allied Commander of Europe, Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove said Wednesday that "we don't do anything on automatic as it related to Ukraine right now." It followed similar statements from U.S. officials that no decision had been made on supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons. Both measures are apparently contingent upon Russia's actions in support of the rebels on the battlefront. Other NATO countries, such as the United Kingdom and Poland, also plan on sending trainers to Ukraine and have been mulling their own weapons sales, but they have made it clear that, like the United States, they are willing to follow the conditional approach.
Yet another issue is an energy dispute between Russia and Ukraine. Moscow has warned Kiev that it could cut off natural gas supplies over a dispute regarding payment and supply flows to the rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine. The impact of a cutoff would be relatively limited compared to previous cutoffs, given the lower energy consumption in the spring and summer and Ukraine's access to reverse gas flows from EU countries such as Slovakia. However, this threat is still an important factor in talks between Russia and the West. Europeans have been pushing for a trilateral meeting to be held on the issue in order to prevent a cutoff. Talks between Russian, Ukrainian and EU officials will be held in Brussels on March 2. Moreover, the short-term deal Russia and Ukraine reached last winter will have to be renegotiated. Just as progress is being made on the battlefield, tension is rising over energy supplies.
The progress in implementing the cease-fire shows that Russia is — at least for now — interested in calming the fighting, especially since the first round of EU sanctions against Russia last year is up for review in March. The Russian economy is experiencing an overall slowdown exacerbated by low oil prices and Western sanctions, and Moscow is interested in getting the Europeans to ease off their isolation of the Russian economy. Russia's courting of EU countries that are relatively soft on sanctions, such as Hungary, Greece and Cyprus, is evidence of such efforts.
Ukraine is also under its own financial stress, with inflation on the rise and its currency devaluing by more than 40 percent in just the past few weeks. These economic issues not only factor into Ukraine's ability to sustain a long-term military conflict in the east, they also potentially threaten the stability of the Ukrainian government. This instability works in Russia's favor, providing additional leverage despite its own economic weaknesses as it attempts to destabilize Ukraine, whether through economic pressure or disruptive attacks such as the latest Kharkiv bombing.
All of these issues rather than just the state of fighting in eastern Ukraine shape the much broader negotiations between Russia and the West. The last few days of quiet on the battlefield can be taken as a positive sign but hardly a definitive one.
