The Ukrainian government has for the most part demonstrated relative coherence since the overthrow of beleaguered former President Viktor Yanukovich in February. While the initial post-Yanukovich period was shaky for the pro-Western Ukrainian government — which was cobbled together on an interim basis between the three main opposition parties of Fatherland, Svoboda and Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform — it was still able to effectively make some major decisions. The interim government signed an $18 billion International Monetary Fund loan agreement to shore up the country's finances and pushed ahead with the political chapters of the EU association agreement.
The government was also able to come to an understanding with many of Yanukovich's former allies. These included former Party of Regions parliamentarians who defected from the party and stayed in parliament, as well as powerful oligarchs in the east, who supported the interim government for guarantees that their business interests would not be targeted. The biggest challenge for the government was the pro-Russian rebellion that developed in the east, which led to the launch of counterterrorism operations in Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, with then-acting President Oleksandr Turchynov serving as commander-in-chief.
The election of President Petro Poroshenko in May boosted the government's legitimacy because he was able to gain more than 50 percent of the vote running on a moderate pro-Western stance with a focus on EU integration and simultaneous engagement with Russia. Poroshenko's election was hailed by the West, and unlike Turchynov — who Moscow regarded as illegitimately appointed — even received indications from Russia that Moscow would respect his election and engage in talks with the new Ukrainian leadership.
Although these talks are ongoing, they have not yet led to any breakthrough agreement between Kiev and Moscow — as demonstrated by the cancellation of the cease-fire and the resumption of counterterrorism operations in the east on July 1. Though the cancellation of the cease-fire received broad support within the Ukrainian political apparatus due to continued rebel attacks during the 10-day cease-fire, some rifts have emerged within Kiev over how to move forward with operations. A crucial point in this issue is a call from the Fatherland Party — an ally of Poroshenko's government and the single largest party in parliament — to impose martial law in the eastern regions. Fatherland has advocated for a more confrontational approach to the Russia-backed separatists. Poroshenko and the Ukrainian national security and defense council, however, have openly opposed this, citing the need to avoid civilian casualties at all costs.
This difference has not yet spurred a degree of infighting that would paralyze the government, particularly since counterterrorism operations have resumed and increased. However, given that the conflict is likely to be a protracted one, this could inflame tensions between the Fatherland-dominated Cabinet and Poroshenko's administration. There have been other indications of potential issues as well, including opposition from the Fatherland parliamentary faction to a draft law initiated by Poroshenko on amending the constitution to decentralize power from national government to the regions — a key demand by Moscow, but one that the Fatherland claims is not far reaching enough.
Poroshenko has also claimed that he wants to call for early parliamentary elections (a key demand of the Euromaidan movement), which could improve his own party's position within parliament at the expense of Fatherland and others. However, the Fatherland party would prefer to hold elections as scheduled in 2017 rather than later this year. Given that establishing martial law in the east would significantly complicate holding elections, this could motivate the Fatherland party's support for the issue.
In addition to the potential rifts with the Fatherland party, Poroshenko will struggle to maintain a difficult balance between his pro-Western base, the moderate pro-Russian elements in the east and the powerful oligarch class that supports them. Russia will work to make sure that this struggle — along with disputes over issues like natural gas pricing — continues to hinder the Ukrainian government, both in terms of Kiev's Western integration efforts and its attempt to dismantle the rebel movement in the east. And as Ukraine is not expected to decidedly defeat the separatists in the near future, potential and emerging rifts within Kiev will likely play into Russia's favor.
