Three weeks after his inauguration, Poroshenko has found himself beholden to two groups that want different things from him: Ukrainian voters and his international partners. Many Maidan activists, who were responsible for the downfall of the previous Ukrainian regime, are growing frustrated with Poroshenko's inability to stem the tide of separatism in the east. On June 29, several thousand Ukrainians demonstrated in Kiev. Their demands included an end of the cease-fire in eastern Ukraine; more active EU support for Ukraine, including EU sanctions against Russia; and better equipment and benefits for Ukrainian military personnel. The protesters included civilians, military reservists and members of pro-Ukrainian volunteer militias, many of which have actively fought the rebels.
Poroshenko capitulated to the protesters June 30. He announced he would replace several high-level officials, including the defense minister, a move meant to acknowledge his people's grievances.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's most influential European partners, France and Germany, have shied away from imposing meaningful sanctions on Russia. European ambassadors met to discuss sanctions July 1 but decided against introducing another round. Indeed, it seems as though Europe is divided on the issue. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande have spoken out against the Kremlin even as they encourage Ukrainian officials to implement a lasting cease-fire by engaging separatist leaders and Putin.
Notably, two days before the cease-fire ended, Merkel, Hollande, Putin and Poroshenko spoke for two hours on the phone, during which they discussed the future of Ukraine. The group spoke once again the following day in a last-minute effort to de-escalate tensions. Kremlin officials said that if Ukraine extended the cease-fire, Russia would allow Ukrainian forces and monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe to access its border checkpoints. However, Moscow continued to quietly support the rebels. Poroshenko could not ignore this reality, further contributing to his decision to nullify the cease-fire.
Poroshenko's decision will allow the Ukrainian military to proactively retake control of the eastern villages, cities and military bases where armed separatists are active. As long as Moscow continues to move weapons, equipment and militants from Russia to eastern Ukraine, however, the operations ultimately will be ineffective. Supporting the separatists gives Russia a strong negotiating position, and the Kremlin will not likely surrender that position any time soon.
Instead, it will remain committed to neutralizing Ukraine — making sure the country does not become openly hostile to Russia or too firmly rooted in Western institutions — as it negotiates with Kiev over a variety of issues, including natural gas supplies, potential decentralization and trade restrictions. As the negotiations move forward, domestic issues will continue to impede Poroshenko from making a major settlement.
