France's intervention in Mali in January 2013 succeeded in its goal of pushing back jihadist militants in northern Mali, who at the time were cooperating with Tuareg rebel groups. Since then, Bamako's political conflict with Tuaregs in the north over regional autonomy has occasionally led to violent flare-ups that have, until now, remained limited in scale and geographic reach.
The most recent round of fighting, however, marks a significant departure from this trend. The conflict, which began on May 16 with the Tuareg rebels' seizure of Kidal, saw the rebels mount a considerable fighting force that managed to beat back three Malian battalions as they tried to liberate the town on May 21. Following their victory in Kidal, Tuareg groups went on to seize and declare control of several other places throughout northern Mali, spanning from the northern Tigharghar Massif down to the Niger River. However, the rebels have not yet threatened the government's control over larger cities such as Timbuktu and Gao on the Niger River bank, and are likely deterred by the larger security presence there.
Three rebel groups are leading this offensive: the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad, the Arab Movement of Azawad and the High Council for the Unity of Azawad. The High Council for the Unity of Azawad is a newly formed group that emerged after the French intervened in Mali; it is a direct descendant of Ansar Dine, a Tuareg group that cooperated with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and was instrumental in establishing jihadist control over large parts of northern Mali in 2012. Of these groups, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad is the most established and has been most directly involved in dialogue between Bamako and the Tuaregs. In 2012, the group was the main force behind the initial Tuareg offensive against the government, but it ended up distancing itself from other groups that were working with transnational jihadist elements, such as Ansar Dine and the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa. The varied composition of the Tuareg coalition leading the most recent offensive in northern Mali creates a possible inroad for jihadist elements looking to gain a foothold in the region, though no signs of such activity have been seen so far. The rebels will also likely be wary of pursuing ties with jihadist groups, since doing so would carry the risk of prompting a French intervention.
French troops in Mali, which currently number about 1,700, have made it clear that they will not involve themselves in Mali's internal conflict. Paris has been firm in its policies: It will only intervene in northern Mali if transnational jihadist groups manage to establish a presence in the region. Current events seem to suggest that France will not diverge from this path. Because neither the rebels nor the Malian government have an urgent need to compromise to achieve a permanent, sustainable settlement on the status of autonomy in northern Mali, direct French intervention against the Tuaregs could drag all parties into a prolonged military mission with no foreseeable end.
At the same time, France's current position, which is limited to demanding a cessation of hostilities and a return to talks, is also harming public opinion toward the presence of French forces in Bamako. This could complicate France's ability to continue cooperating with the Malian government on security if the Tuareg conflict persists at current levels. The fighting could also seriously harm France's long-term strategy for dealing with security in northern Mali. France's exit strategy, as well as its long-term goal for handling new threats that arise in the Sahel region, is based on transitioning responsibility for security operations to regional peacekeeping forces and eventually the Malian military. France and its Western partners have been bolstering Malian military capabilities through the EU training mission and by providing funds and equipment for precisely this purpose. Battlefield losses, equipment losses and the constant pressure of ongoing operations against Tuareg rebels could badly deteriorate the Malian military's capabilities and severely limit its ability to develop further, let alone shoulder the burden of blocking jihadist activity in the country's northern regions.
However, northern Mali's internal security is directly tied the stability of the region as a whole, and if threatened, it could undermine France's goal of preventing jihadist militants from gaining footholds there in the long run. France will therefore keep a close eye on Bamako's efforts, though it will stay removed from the conflict for now. Paris has already delayed its scheduled drawdown of forces, and has redeployed 100 troops to Gao as the Tuareg fighting continues.
