France seriously damaged the capabilities of northern Mali's jihadist organizations, such as al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa. But reconciling the differences between the Malian government and the Tuaregs in the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad was always beyond the scope of the intervention.
That is not to say Paris discounted the animosity between the groups. Indeed, it made sure to keep the two groups separated whenever possible. At the outset of military operations, Bamako threatened to wrest control of Kidal from the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad. Paris intervened, however, by facilitating negotiations for national elections, slated to take place in July. The Malian government reneged on its commitments only after Tuareg militants reportedly attacked the black residents in Kidal city.
Re-establishing Control
The recent clashes near Anefis show that the Tuaregs maintain some degree of control, which threatens Bamako's attempts to re-establish control of the whole of Mali. As pressure from the jihadist threat dwindles, the disparity between northern Mali and southern Mali once again becomes centrally important to Mali's security. Rulers in Bamako and several different organizations representing Tuaregs and other northern ethnicities, such as Arabs, are preparing for elections. These negotiations will help define the relationship between the north and south moving forward, but they probably will not unite the country behind a national government.
The presence of French and African forces may help stabilize relations between Bamako and northern Mali as they attempt to ease tensions ahead of negotiations and elections. But as the tension escalates to armed confrontations, foreign forces are unlikely to intervene directly in what will be deemed an internal Malian affair. Further attempts at mediation could contain these armed confrontations, but the country's geography will continue to challenge a sustainable solution.
Beyond keeping Bamako from controlling the entire country, continued fighting could also threaten the stabilization operations taking place in the country since the end of offensive operations against jihadist groups in northern Mali. Persistent areas of insecurity could facilitate the jihadist threat still present throughout the Sahel and North Africa. Even the jihadists that remain in Mali could benefit from continued fighting between government forces and Tuareg militants.
