Following weeks of sustained popular protests, Venezuela's opposition coalition is divided over whether it should negotiate with the government. The parties supporting talks include Primero Justicia, the party of presidential runner-up Henrique Capriles, Un Nuevo Tiempo and Accion Democratica, but the remaining six parties have refused. Staunchly anti-government elements of the opposition such as Leopoldo Lopez's Voluntad Popular party and the student movement have even called for more protests.

The disagreement comes as President Nicolas Maduro is trying to reconcile with the United States politically. On March 15, he announced the creation of a commission, headed by National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, to normalize political relations with Washington. Then on March 18, he formally asked the Union of South American Nations to support a dialogue with the United States.

Improved relations with the United States would greatly benefit Venezuela, especially if they led to foreign investment. The country desperately needs outside capital, particularly for its deteriorating oil sector. Since the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela came to power, production has decreased from nearly 3.5 million barrels per day to about 2.7 million barrels per day. This has left Caracas in a difficult domestic position because it relies heavily on oil revenue to finance social spending, which has helped ensure the support of a majority of Venezuelan voters. Improved relations with the United States could also enable Venezuela to recover some foreign investment lost through various nationalizations and restrictive currency controls implemented by former President Hugo Chavez.

However, the United States has not agreed to Caracas' call for direct talks. On March 17, the U.S. Department of State denied the existence of any U.S. discussion with Venezuela and instead called for a mediated dialogue between the protesters and the government. Thus the success of any potential rapprochement with the United States depends on the outcome of these negotiations. The United States has virtually no desire to become directly involved in the talks; it would rather delegate that responsibility to a third party better suited to address the region. Candidates include Uruguay or Brazil, both of which are separately trying to bring the opposition and government to the negotiating table. A delegation of Union of South American Nations foreign ministers will arrive in Caracas on March 25, and the issue of negotiations could very well be on the agenda.

While the Venezuelan government will probably try harder to convince the opposition to negotiate, any talks between the two sides will be very difficult. The various factions of the opposition have different and oftentimes competing political interests. (They can't even agree on whether they want to talk with the government in the first place.) The protesters' demands range from alleviating daily scarcities to the complete overthrow of the regime, so even if Maduro can convince some elements of the opposition to negotiate, he probably will not be able to appease all those involved. Moreover, many of the issues that fomented the protests — inflation, crime and food scarcity — are long-term structural problems that cannot be solved simply by negotiating. 

Despite these difficulties, both sides are making progress in facilitating negotiations specifically by courting Capriles. On March 16, Capriles confirmed that the government and the opposition had at least discussed a potential negotiation. Separately, the government began talks in early March with the industrial conglomerate Polar, national business organization Fedecamaras and representatives from nearly 100 national firms. These talks focused on issues of mutual interest, such as alleviating the country's periodic shortages of goods by eliminating policies that bottleneck foreign exchange for the private sector and by streamlining import requirements.

Some opposition figures, including lawmaker Hiram Gaviria, have joined these talks, suggesting that the opposition is taking them seriously. Gaviria and Capriles attended negotiations with Maduro in January. In addition, on March 18 Interior Minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres said that Capriles was not responsible for the violence surrounding the protests; instead, he shifted the blame to Lopez and opposition lawmaker Maria Corina Machado.

Though it's possible that the government could use the negotiations as a way to further divide the opposition, Caracas will probably try to include as many political opponents as it can. If it can persuade enough opposition members to participate in the talks, it might be able to demonstrate to the United States that it has made enough progress to start discussing bilateral relations. If the government takes the negotiations too lightly, more protests could ensue.

Either way, the conflicting interests of the protesters will complicate any government effort. But the opposition can only push the government so far; too many protests could invite an unmanageable political crisis. For now, it is in the government's best interest to bring the opposition together for talks as soon as possible.