Maduro's victory, even if it had been more decisive, belies the fact that he has several challenges ahead of him. Chavez was successful because he constantly managed broad political and economic challenges and weakened potential rivals within his inner circle. Maduro, who has never before been elected to public office, does have experience as foreign minister. His wife is an influential player in the National Assembly, and Maduro is known to have a close relationship with Venezuela's closest ally, Cuba.
Since becoming interim president, Maduro has emphasized publicly that he leads with a unified civilian-military government. He has also tried to dispel rumors and concerns that Chavez's inner circle would break up after the former president's death.
However, political competition within Chavez's inner circle is fairly commonplace. Though they were united in the lead-up to the election, that unity may not last now that the election is over. Maduro's main rival is National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello. A former military officer, Cabello has the support of elements within the military, but he is not a particularly popular politician in his own right. So while Maduro was politically credible enough to win the election, many of his potential opponents retain significant institutional power, which must be managed to ensure political stability. Given the election results, this may prove difficult for Maduro, whose victory may be unconvincing to the inner circle.
The results also mean that there is less room for Maduro to maneuver publicly. After a campaign season that lasted for more than a year, Venezuela has entered a period of significant policy adjustment, in which issues, such as declining energy industry, foreign exchange shortages and deteriorating infrastructure must be addressed. After the election, Cabello claimed that the results "require deep self-criticism." He added that "we need to search for our own failures even below the rocks, but we can neither risk the country nor our Commander's legacy." His statement refers to Capriles' electoral performance, which garnered him nearly a million more votes than he received in October, when he ran against Chavez. Venezuelans overwhelmingly supported Chavez in October, but the April 14 results suggest that what support for Chavez's legacy may still exist may not extend to the rest of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela.
How adamantly Capriles refutes the results will determine what happens next in Venezuela. If Capriles refuses to accept the results of a recount, then Venezuela could be in for a long and drawn-out public battle, which could result in civil unrest. But even if the opposition accepts the results and resigns itself to six more years of chavista rule, Maduro will have plenty of challenges to contend with. Not only will he have to redress the country's political and economic situation, but he will also have to manage the interests of the now-fractured group of leaders built by his predecessor.
