Ukraine's parliament voted Feb. 21 to release former Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko from prison. The move will be controversial for President Viktor Yanukovich and will add another layer of political maneuvering to the ongoing crisis that outside groups, such as Russia, could exploit.
Timoshenko has long been a controversial and popular figure in Ukraine. She was part of the coalition that led the Orange Revolution in 2004 and was prime minister in 2005 and 2007-2010. She was considered one of the three major political leaders alongside former President Viktor Yushchenko and Yanukovich. It was the divisions between these three leaders that paralyzed Ukraine for years — the West and Russia played the political leadership off of each other to influence Ukraine.
In 2011, Timoshenko was charged with abuse of office, stemming from her energy negotiations with Russia that resulted in Moscow winning contracts and pricing preferable to Russia. Yanukovich testified against Timoshenko in criminal court, accusing her of corruption from Russian influence. With her sentencing, Yanukovich eliminated a political competitor, though the West rallied behind Timoshenko during the trial, accusing Yanukovich of political persecution. This became a critical sticking point in the negotiations on trade and association agreements between the European Union and Ukraine, with the European Union demanding the release of Timoshenko in order for the agreements to move forward.
Timoshenko represents the largest threat to Yanukovich should she be released and allowed to run in the upcoming elections. Timoshenko not only has deep ties within Yanukovich's own bloc and Party of Regions, but also appeals to many of the opposition groups, especially those loyal to Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Yatsenyuk is not loyal to Timoshenko — though the two seem to have a love-hate relationship — but many in his following could turn to the previous prime minister if she is released. This also complicates any political plans for the rest of the moderate opposition, such as current media favorite Vitali Klitschko, who could see his supporters split to join Timoshenko. Ultimately, Timoshenko appeals to many voters on both sides of the country and is already championed by the outside players in Europe who fought for her release.
Russia has an interest in seeing Timoshenko freed at this stage. Though Timoshenko was part of the Orange movement, she has deep and personal ties to the Kremlin, especially with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It was the personal negotiations between Timoshenko and Putin that shifted Russia's influence in Ukraine's energy sector. On Feb. 20, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev said that Yanukovich may no longer be the Ukrainian leader the Kremlin prefers to work with because he has shown he cannot control the country. The political scene is shifting rapidly, but Timoshenko's potential political comeback raises the question of whether Moscow sees her as a possible replacement for Yanukovich.
