Kiev stayed relatively calm overnight Feb. 20 as the German, French and Polish foreign ministers, along with a mediator dispatched by Russia, worked to negotiate a settlement between Yanukovich and the three main opposition leaders. When news of a settlement broke, the calm on the streets ended. In the morning, thousands of protesters gathered on Independence Square, also known as Maidan, and reinforced barricades. The Interior Ministry reported that police were again the targets of gunfire around the parliament building and the square and that demonstrators were moving toward parliament in a possible attempt to occupy the building — as they have tried to do in the past.
The overnight negotiations came after EU foreign ministers agreed to implement sanctions against Ukrainian individuals and to halt the delivery of certain equipment used by security forces. Details concerning the implementation of the sanctions and the identities of their targets were left out. That vagueness may have been used to pressure Yanukovich as negotiations moved forward.
The West needs results after sending such a high-level delegation and strongly supporting the opposition. It has become clear over the past months that the opposition is fractured, and it could fracture further over arguments about whether to accept the agreement and how it should be implemented.
The opposition was not represented in its entirety at the negotiating table, and posts to social media make it clear that some protesters want Yanukovich to step down immediately. The most militant protesters appear to be the members of the right-wing Right Sector movement, which on Feb. 19 said it did not respect the first truce reached between Yanukovich and the opposition and likely played an important role in the escalation of violence on Feb. 20. Excluded from the deal, the Right Sector will probably not just walk away — it is likely to again instigate violence.
Persistent unrest will fuel anger among the country's silent majority, which will likely grow increasingly frustrated with the opposition. Russia could view further violence as beneficial, particularly if protesters come across as divided and radicalized ahead of new elections.
Moscow's reaction to the agreement will be important to monitor over the coming hours and days. On Feb. 20, the Kremlin indicated that it is not confident that Yanukovich can maintain control over the country. Moscow might have pressured Yanukovich overnight with the prospect that he could be replaced with a figure Russia finds acceptable. Russia is not devoted to Yanukovich, and at this point he may have become a liability. Members of Yanukovich's own party are distancing themselves from him, and there are signs he is losing control over the country's military and security forces.
However, Moscow does not want the West to triumph. The Kremlin will not accept a resolution under which the Western-oriented opposition gains power, which is why evidence points to a considerable Russian role in the European-led negotiations. Putin also held a meeting with his security council Feb. 21 on Ukraine. Putin is probably biding his time, secure in the knowledge that Russia's long-term position is better than that of the West when it comes to influencing Ukraine.
A reminder of Russia's leverage was the news that on Feb. 20, Ukraine once more postponed a $2 billion bond sale. On Feb. 17, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that Russia would buy $2 billion of Ukrainian bonds this week, but the delays in the bond sale suggest that Russia is making clear to the West that it can plunge Ukraine into a deeper crisis — one that the West would be left to deal with. News of deepening financial trouble for Ukraine will further strengthen Russia's position, considering constraints on the West's ability to provide immediate financial aid.
