Ukraine has completed yet another cycle of warlike live streams, diplomatic appeals for calm and government concessions of questionable sincerity. The tenuous calm now seen in the streets is owed more to exhaustion than to a sense of resolution. With more cycles to come, we may as well use this lull to understand what Russia may be calculating.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sat back today while the Europeans took the spotlight. Foreign ministers from Germany, France and Poland traveled to downtown Kiev amid violent clashes to meet first with the opposition and then with Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich. Meanwhile, scattered reports of police defections formed the backdrop to a frantic Yanukovich trying to reshuffle his security and intelligence chiefs in western Ukraine once again. The view revealed an embattled Yanukovich surrounded by a sanctions-wielding European contingent scolding the Ukrainian leader on human rights.

But by the end of the day, it appeared that the Europeans had made some headway in forcing Yanukovich back on the defensive. The Ukrainian parliament passed a measure that would halt the "anti-terrorism operation" announced by Yanukovich the previous day. The law, if ratified by the speaker of parliament and not vetoed by Yanukovich within the next 10 days, would also order all law enforcement officers to lay down their guns and return to their barracks. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also said that Yanukovich expressed his willingness to create an interim government and hold early presidential and parliamentary elections.

Whether these measures actually go through is another story. For now, Yanukovich can claim that he is giving these negotiations a chance, hoping that the radical elements of the opposition reject the terms of the agreement, resume violence and torpedo the deal — as radical elements are wont to do. The crisis will then return to where it started: tenacious protesters of various nationalist stripes trying to force the downfall of the government and a president simply incapable of putting them down.

But important nuances also emerged Thursday. Russia appeared indifferent throughout the day. The prospect of forcing early elections on a democratically elected government in Russia's periphery is a precedent that Moscow will naturally fight. But how Moscow fights this round is more complex. While Yanukovich was trying to fend for himself in a room full of European officials with fire barricades still blazing half a mile away, he reportedly broke away to call Vladimir Putin and request a mediator.

The mediator Putin deployed to Kiev was not Russian Deputy Premier Dmitri Rogozin, who has a reputation as being a bit of a bulldog for the Kremlin in negotiations. Instead, the man chosen for the job was a much lower profile and seemingly benign Russian official, Vladimir Lukin. Following his diplomatic career, including his service as ambassador to the United States and his various roles in the Duma, Lukin was appointed Russia's human rights commissioner (or ombudsman). From Putin's point of view, if the Europeans want to preach human rights, he has the perfect conversation partner for them.

But Putin also has much more serious moves to contemplate over Ukraine. Yanukovich has become a liability to Moscow's foreign policy agenda, and the Kremlin is not being shy about its rapidly declining opinion of the Ukrainian leader. As Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev said, Russia will only deal with "legitimate and effective authorities — a leadership which people aren't wiping their feet on like a doormat." But preparing a suitable alternative that the West can stomach but is still friendly to Russian interests is a process that requires time.

Putin is giving the impression that time is on his side. His strategy is to let the Europeans and protesters overplay their hand. Significant numbers of Ukrainians still are outraged by the protests, even if they are disillusioned with Yanukovich. The protests and government takeovers in the western region are intensifying, but these movements probably are unsustainable without external support. Poland is trying to sustain the momentum behind these protests, but Warsaw knows it faces major limits in confronting Moscow when Berlin is far more reluctant to challenge the Russians.

Moscow is betting that the political personalities in Ukraine can be managed. Even a federalized Ukraine that gives the regions more authority may be a suitable outcome for Russia. Moreover, Russia maintains significant economic leverage over Ukraine while Germany is looking nervously at the expenses piling up in the eurozone. In other words, Russia still has options. And as Putin coolly and carefully deliberates those options, he'll be waiting for a phone call from Berlin to negotiate a deal.