Starting Feb. 1, the Kazakh government will raise the quota on the number of migrants allowed into the country and will allow migrant workers to stay in Kazakhstan as long as they hold a Kazakh bank account. The government will also raise the cap on how many migrants businesses can hire — currently five, though the new cap has not been announced — without paying a tax of $25 per month per migrant above the cap. For a wealthy foreign firm, such a tax is nominal, but for a domestic Kazakh construction or agriculture firm it can add up.
The Kazakh Labor Ministry expects that the number of migrants to Kazakhstan — whose population exceeds 17 million — will rise from 174,000 in 2013 to 230,000 in 2014 and 500,000 by 2015. This is in addition to the existing illegal migrant population of an estimated 400,000-1,000,000. Even with a large influx, net migration into Kazakhstan stood at minus 11,000 in 2013, because nearly 200,000 Kazakhs migrated to Russia, mostly for work. For now, the immigration to and emigration from Kazakhstan are canceling each other out. However, as the Kazakh population rises along with immigration into the country, tensions will emerge.
There are three types of migrants who come Kazakhstan either legally or illegally. The first type comprises citizens from neighboring countries who bring vegetables, fruits and other goods across the porous border to sell during the day and return to their country at night. The second type comprise seasonal workers who come to Kazakhstan between April and August, when the majority of construction, crop collection and sheepherding occurs. The third type comprise migrants who come for a longer term. Approximately 90 percent of these migrants work in unskilled jobs in the construction, mining, trade and agricultural sectors. Workers in these last two categories will be affected most by the regulatory changes.
Currently, three of the four southern Central Asian states account for nearly all the migration into Kazakhstan. Sixty percent of those migrating to Kazakhstan are Uzbeks, 25 percent are Kyrgyz, 10 percent are Tajiks and the other 5 percent are mostly Uighurs from China or Turkish citizens. Many migrant workers seeking seasonal or long-term labor — particularly those from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan — choose Kazakhstan as their destination because it is geographically easier to enter than Russia. The large influx from the other three Central Asian states is also due to the dramatically increasing populations in the region and the economic disparity between Kazakhstan and its neighbors.
The Central Asian Population Boom
All of the Central Asian states have already surpassed the U.N. forecasts for population growth. For example, the United Nations predicted Kazakhstan's population would grow to 16.7 million by 2015; the population surpassed this number in 2011.
Overall, Central Asia's population has doubled since 1980, straining each country's food, water, housing, job and financial resources. Moreover, the Central Asian economies have not grown together. For instance, Kazakhstan has vast oil and natural gas wealth, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have relatively few or no profitable hydrocarbon resources.
The combination of limited resources and increasing populations has left Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan with populations looking abroad for work and money. Remittances from workers abroad make up large parts of each of the three countries' gross domestic product — 48 percent for Tajikistan, 31 for Kyrgyzstan and 16.3 percent for Uzbekistan. Nearly all of the migrant workers from these Central Asian states work in either Kazakhstan or Russia. There are simply more and higher paying jobs in these two countries. Migrant workers are being paid 10-50 percent less than Russian or Kazakh citizens for the same low-level jobs, but that is still higher than what they would make at home.
The Role of Russia's Tighter Migrant Regulations
Central Asia's growing population and limited resources are adding to the number of migrants coming to Kazakhstan, but there is another factor: More migrants are expected to enter Kazakhstan as the other market for such labor — Russia — tightens its regulations on migration. Approximately 240,000 migrants came to Russia officially in 2013, though the unofficial number is between 400,000 and 1,000,000 — mostly from the former Soviet republics.
In 2013, Russia set new restrictions on the number of migrants that could be employed in the country and on migrants' ability to hold property in the country. The government is discussing further restrictions, although Russia needs migrant laborers for low-level unskilled jobs as the ethnic Russian population declines. These restrictions come amid heightened ethnic tensions in Russia; xenophobia is on the rise, and Russian nationalists believe migrant workers are taking jobs during an economic downturn. The difficulty for migrants to get into Russia leaves Kazakhstan as the preferred alternative for work.
The Consequences of Increasing Immigration
The Kazakh government recognizes the factors driving higher migration rates and is attempting to plan for the future. If the government does not raise the quota for legal immigration into the country, then the migrants will still come illegally. This means that the Kazakh government will not be able to regulate or tax them. Moreover, the government incentive for migrants to open bank accounts in exchange for a longer stay in the country also integrates the migrant population more into the Kazakh financial system, instead of keeping money off the books.
However, increased migration into Kazakhstan will come with great stress to the economic and social systems. Kazakhstan has had relatively low unemployment rate overall (5.2 percent), though this is mostly due to the large shadow economy in the country, which reportedly accounts for nearly 3 million "self-employed" workers —though the number is most likely even higher, as in most former Soviet countries. Also, unemployment is regionally disproportionate; the western and southern regions of the country have much higher unemployment rates. Western Kazakhstan saw instability in 2011 after workers were not paid. An influx of foreign workers could raise unemployment in Kazakhstan as their lower salaries undercut Kazakh workers.
This will also increase social tensions in Kazakhstan, with more Uzbeks, Kyrgyz and Tajiks coming into the country. Ethnic hostilities in Central Asia are already high, with Uzbek-Kyrgyz and Tajik-Kyrgyz clashes becoming common in the southern states, in addition to clashes on the Kazakh-China border in 2012.
Kazakhstan has already enacted ethnic restrictions. In 2006, the government forced Uzbek-language schools in southern Kazakhstan to switch from the Latin to the Cyrillic alphabet. In 2005 and 2006, the government cracked down on religious institutions among the Uzbek and Tajik populations — who are traditionally more conservative Muslim — under the edict that those populations were spreading extremism. In 2011, Kazakhstan experienced militancy for the first time in its modern history, which led to increased security sweeps of possible militant groups. Such tensions between ethnic groups in Kazakhstan will only increase with an influx of more migrants.
