In 1994, an imposing media mogul in impeccably cut Caraceni suits swept the Italian general elections, a dazzling outsider promising to clean up the country's ailing postwar political system. Nearly two decades later, Silvio Berlusconi — modern Italy's longest-serving prime minister and most powerful man — was expelled Wednesday from the Italian Senate and banned from holding public office in light of a string of scandals, including (but not limited to) underage prostitution, embezzlement, nepotism and corruption. In the end, a comparatively anticlimactic tax fraud conviction brought Berlusconi down. His high-profile trial and downfall would have obliterated anyone's political career. But at this critical time in Italy and Europe, it would be unwise to underestimate the role Berlusconi may yet play in his country's path forward.
When Berlusconi first took residence behind the austere facade of the Palazzo Chigi, the Italian political system was being ripped apart by the "mani pulite" (polished hands) corruption scandal that had tainted nearly every office held by the ruling party and its main opposition. Berlusconi's rapid ascent to the front page of the newspaper was framed by his hugely influential position at the helm of one of Italy's largest media groups, as well as the support he enjoyed as the president of one of the country's most popular and successful soccer clubs, AC Milan. Running on a center-right platform, Berlusconi presented himself as a stalwart supporter of business interests against a resurgent communist movement and threats from powerful unions. The essence of Berlusconi's power also lies in his political charisma. His ability to rein in and stabilize the bumbling Italian political system cemented his status as perhaps the most memorable political figure in Italy since the war.
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Eventually, however, the theatrics became tiresome, and as the country's economic woes took a toll on the general population, Berlusconi's support faltered. His unique brand of authoritative populism and the hedonistic personality that had made him an almost lovable international figure in the more-prosperous mid-2000s became infuriating in recession-plagued Europe. He was particularly frustrating to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the severe figurehead of austerity, who was rumored to have orchestrated Berlusconi's resignation as prime minister in 2011. Berlusconi sustained another blow in late September, when several members of his party resigned and defected to current Prime Minister Enrico Letta's centrist coalition.
Wednesday's decision by the Italian Senate to banish Berlusconi may ultimately prove to be the least damaging of his recent misfortunes. With the economic crisis continuing to ravage the European periphery, and with unemployment in Italy showing no sign of abatement, political stability in Italy is tenuous. Stratfor has forecast that Europe's economic and political deadlock would lead to the emergence of non-traditional parties and movements throughout the Continent. The still-politically savvy Berlusconi, once again an outsider, will actively exploit this shift.
Since being ousted as prime minister in 2011, Berlusconi and his party have amped up their anti-German rhetoric and continued to present themselves as defenders of small businesses, and they have (sometimes successfully) opposed the higher taxes and austerity measures pushed by Letta's pro-European Cabinet. Berlusconi is likely to ramp up his anti-austerity and anti-EU rhetoric while selling himself as a victim of what is sure to be an increasingly unpopular mainstream, pro-European government.
Still, several challenges remain for Berlusconi. He has to compete with the rise of Italy's Five Star Movement, an outsider party led by former comedian Beppe Grillo, which is already channeling the anti-establishment sentiment bubbling up in Italy. Even if Berlusconi succeeds in his plans for a political rebirth, the 77-year-old magnate also faces serious questions of succession. His party's political platform has revolved around Berlusconi's image and figure almost exclusively, and it's hard to think of a candidate that could succeed him.
Berlusconi seems to have taken a page out of French politician Jean-Marie Le Pen's playbook by recently promoting the political career of his daughter, Marina Berlusconi. Le Pen, the former leader of the far-right National Front, handed over the reins of his party to his energetic daughter, Marine, who in less than three years has transformed the marginalized National Front into one of the most popular parties in France. Though a good part of Italy will celebrate tonight the downfall of an iconic and controversial figure, the truth remains that so long as the European economy continues to unravel and traditional parties faithful to Brussels and Berlin lose support, the Berlusconi name seems likely to remain a fixture of Italian politics.