The quick scheduling for the appeal hearing has generated outrage in the People of Freedom party, which has accused the court of manipulating the legal cases against Berlusconi for political reasons. On July 11, the party successfully lobbied to suspend Parliament for a day to plan its future strategy. This created strong divisions within the Democratic Party, since some members of the party supported the idea of temporarily suspending parliamentary activity.
While Berlusconi himself has repeatedly said the government's stability will not be affected if his guilty verdict is upheld, the People of Freedom party is unlikely to continue supporting the current government without its leader. If the government falls, both ruling parties will rapidly be forced to deal with internal disarray. Berlusconi has long been the undisputed leader of his party, and as a result, it has failed to nurture new, younger leadership. While there are many possible successors, none seems to have the charisma to become Berlusconi's heir.
In the Democratic Party, a faction of younger leadership, exemplified by Florence Mayor Matteo Renzi, is threatening the clout of old-guard leadership such as current party secretary Guglielmo Epifani. Renzi, who lost the primary elections to become the party's candidate in late 2012, would most likely be the primary beneficiary of Berlusconi's downfall, attracting some of the votes from disillusioned center-right voters and from those seeking a new face to lead the country out of its political impasse. However, this is unlikely to resolve the internal disputes within the Democratic Party because Renzi is not supported by the multiple factions within the party. Since its creation in 2007, the Democratic Party has struggled to overcome its internal divisions, which are marked by the presence of socialists, communists and moderates who struggle to get along with each other.
The crisis in the mainstream parties, along with a worsening of the economic situation in Italy, has recently led to the emergence of the Five Star Movement, an anti-establishment party that bases its rhetoric in criticism of the country's traditional political elite. The Five Star Movement became the most-voted for single party in the February elections (though it ended up in third place because the People of Freedom and the Democratic Party competed as coalitions). While the Five Star Movement has recently lost some popular support because of internal divisions, it could regain strength if the mainstream parties cannot overcome their crises.
Italy's most recent political crisis is similar to those of two other members of the eurozone: Greece and Portugal. In Greece, the coalition government of the country's two mainstream parties is struggling to survive after the political scandal that was generated following New Democracy's decision to temporarily shut down the country's public broadcaster, ERT. As with its Italian counterpart, the Greek government is under increasing pressure from an anti-establishment party, the Coalition of the Radical Left (commonly known as Syriza).
In Portugal, the coalition government led by Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho is also dealing with internal divisions because of the negative impact of austerity measures in the Portuguese population, and President Anibal Cavaco Silva has recently urged the country's ruling and opposition parties to reach an agreement to avoid early elections. On July 12, Lisbon asked the European Union and the International Monetary Fund for a delay to the next review of Portugal's bailout program, originally scheduled for July 15, because of its political crisis.
These cases highlight how the economic crisis in Europe is exacerbating political shortcomings in the eurozone periphery. Italy's political fragility is nothing new; in fact, it is a direct consequence of the country's history and geography. But the interconnectedness of the eurozone (where political instability in a country leads to financial instability in the whole currency union) is making these crises more dangerous to the survival of the euro.
