Due to the July 8 decision, Greece will receive 6.8 billion euros ($8.8 billion) from a 130 billion-euro bailout package until October. The relatively fast decision to release additional funds (albeit in smaller tranches) was likely influenced by the fear of instability in the wider eurozone during the summer triggered by instability in Greece, a situation that German Chancellor Angela Merkel in particular wants to avoid ahead of Germany's September parliamentary elections.
However, EU policymakers also do not want to appear to be wasting taxpayer money. Therefore, the 6.8 billion euros will be divided into smaller tranches that will be released as Athens implements further reforms over the coming months. As part of the troika's demands, the Greek Parliament is expected to debate and approve more public sector layoffs in the next two weeks.
In the coming months, the Parliament also will have to reform aspects of Greece's taxation system. About 25,000 public sector workers will be affected by a pay cut until the end of the year as the government tries to find new positions for them or lays them off under a so-called mobility scheme, in which the government tries to shift public workers to departments that need more employees while cutting redundancies in others. Between 2010 and 2015 Greece is supposed to cut 150,000 public sector jobs. Therefore, in addition to the mobility scheme, another 15,000 public sector jobs are supposed to be cut by the end of 2014. Athens will try to limit backlash by cutting public sector positions through retirement schemes instead of layoffs and will likely try to delay the implementation as it has done in the past.
Since late June, Greece has been led by a two-party coalition composed of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' conservative New Democracy party and the center-left Panhellenic Socialist Movement that has a slight majority in the Parliament. The Democratic Left party exited the coalition after Samaras' controversial decision to shut down public broadcaster ERT to save costs. On July 8, municipal workers who will be affected by the cuts, such as teachers and police officers, protested in Athens and engaged in a two-day strike. The prospects of further financial aid to repay debt will likely be a sufficiently strong incentive to push through the demanded reforms. However, Greece is likely to see numerous protests by public-sector workers during the summer and delays in the implementation of the reforms.
In return for the reform efforts, eurozone countries are expected to give Greece 2.5 billion euros in late July (after the Greek government passes public sector reforms) and 500 million euros in October. Another 2 billion euros, split into tranches of 1.5 billion euros and 500 million euros, will also be released in July and October and will come from the gains the eurozone national central banks receive from their holdings of Greek sovereign debt. At the end of July the International Monetary Fund is expected to release 1.8 billion euros in aid to Greece. This aid will help the Greek government meet its financial obligations over the coming months.
Greece's tourism sector will likely relieve some of the economic pressure during the summer months and mitigate public unrest. Tourism, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council, directly and indirectly contributes close to 20 percent of Greece's gross domestic product and employment. Greece has eased visa requirements for visitors from large markets such as Russia, Turkey and China. This has reportedly led to increases in visitors from those countries, and Greece still receives many tourists from more stable European countries like Germany and the United Kingdom. Arrivals at Greece's main airports in June reportedly increased by almost 15 percent compared to June 2012.
However, this relief is likely to be temporary considering the bleaker long-term indicators. Greece and Spain persistently have the highest unemployment in the European Union. Eurostat data show that in Greece only 42 percent of the working-age population is employed. In Spain, 48 percent of the working-age population is employed. The long-term unemployment rate in Greece in 2012 was 14.4 percent, more than three times the rate in 2009. The unemployment crisis fuels political instability and reduces Athens' ability to implement the reforms demanded by the international creditors.
Toward the end of 2013, the eurozone ministers will likely meet to discuss further aid, and Greece will be under renewed pressure to implement more unpopular reforms. This round of decision-making can be expected to be more turbulent. The pressure to show more leniency will increase, especially since countries like Ireland and Portugal are aiming to end their bailout programs, and the discussion regarding new write-downs on Greek debt is likely to be pushed by the International Monetary Fund after the German elections.