Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, already a powerful figure in Venezuela, may have become even more powerful. The Venezuelan National Assembly is scheduled to vote Thursday on an "enabling law," which will confer on Maduro the power to pass laws unilaterally for a year. The vote comes as lawmakers obliged Maduro's request, made weeks earlier on Oct. 8, to strip opposition lawmaker Maria Aranguren of her immunity from prosecution. The move effectively removes Aranguren from the legislature and is expected to give the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela, or PSUV, the three-fifths majority needed to pass the enabling law.

However, this may not be as big a victory for Maduro as it appears. The political situation in Venezuela seems increasingly unstable, and the president's hold on power may not be completely secure. That he had to evict Aranguren is telling in itself; there was never any question that his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, would earn the support he needed in the legislature. In fact, Chavez was granted the enabling law four times during his presidency, and he used the powers to implement a wide range of laws.

What is a Geopolitical Diary? George Friedman explains.

Of course, Chavez was aided in part by the opposition's boycott of the 2005 legislative elections, which gave PSUV an overwhelming majority until 2010. But PSUV now has only a simple majority, and it needs the support of independent voters to achieve the 99 votes necessary to pass the enabling law. The ruling coalition may not be weakening, but it is difficult to believe that the situation could not have been handled more quickly and more quietly. The delay over Maduro's enabling law raises questions about whether or not the ruling party is truly united behind him.

The past days and weeks in Venezuela have been characterized by a frenzy of political activity. In part, this is a product of political campaigning ahead of the Dec. 8 municipal elections. Maduro and his allies have conducted a public relations campaign decrying an ongoing "economic war" between Venezuela and its supposed enemies. Opposition leaders have borne the brunt of the blame, but traditional scapegoats like the United States have not escaped blame for skyrocketing inflation and shortages of basic goods.

Meanwhile, Maduro deployed security forces to inspect and occupy stores suspected of overcharging. At least one store has been looted under national guard supervision, and there are reports that stores are refusing to open for fear that their wares will be seized. The campaign is a political stunt, but one that seriously elevates the threat of state action and mob violence against Venezuela's private sector.

Maduro needs to show strength ahead of the municipal elections. The ruling elites are concerned that a poor performance in the polls would show that the PSUV's power and popularity are slipping. Factions among the Chavistas have engaged in some public disputes over the future of the nation's policy. While some pragmatic technocrats such as Finance Minister Nelson Merentes have argued for a normalization of the country's dual currency regime, others have advocated strict adherence to Chavez's policies. Meanwhile, the intentions of the military, which is an arbiter of power in Venezuela, are unknown, but it has no real incentive to intervene and bear the burden of guiding the country through years of economic and political tumult. Such divisions are rarely if ever seen in public. The rumors derived from these public displays of disagreement are what arouse concern in the military and between the military and Chavista leaders.

With the enabling law, Maduro can pass laws at his discretion, but it is unclear how or if he can successfully wield this newfound power. He still needs to secure political support, and without unity among the Chavistas, there is no guarantee these powers will effectively secure his position. 

RANE
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Expert analysis when it matters most.

Get access to RANE's decision-grade geopolitical intelligence.