Mubarak's release is the latest show of force on the part of al-Sisi. In the seven weeks since former President Mohammed Morsi was removed in a military coup, the Egyptian military has reasserted itself in Egyptian politics by arresting Muslim Brotherhood leaders, installing an interim government with al-Sisi as both deputy prime minister and defense minister, and handpicking a committee to draft a new constitution. With the military in control, security forces violently broke up Muslim Brotherhood protests Aug. 14 with little regard for foreign reaction, and the subsequent clashes have killed more than 1,000 people. Different media outlets have been shut down for an alleged bias in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood, and clashes between security forces and jihadists operating in the Sinai have increased.
A Symbol of Consolidation
But the release of Mubarak is a riskier move because it has the potential to unite disparate opponents of the regime under a common cause. At first, many secular and liberal opposition forces supported Morsi's removal and went along with the military's roadmap because of their dislike for the Muslim Brotherhood's rule. But even some of the strongest supporters of the military's actions have condemned Mubarak's release. A Tamarod spokesperson strongly criticized the move, and both the Revolutionary Socialists and the April 6 Youth Movement have shown their intent to stage protests Friday in opposition to Mubarak's freedom.
The National Alliance to Support Legitimacy, a group of ousted Morsi's supporters, also announced it would stage protests, but the Brotherhood itself has not announced an intention to protest in direct response to Mubarak's release. In part, this can be attributed to the mass arrests that have jailed much of the Brotherhood's senior leadership. Despite the violent crackdown on the group, Muslim Brotherhood supporters have continued to demonstrate in the streets almost continuously since Morsi's removal, and in the past the group has typically launched protests after Friday prayers. It is telling, then, that an Egyptian ministry has said that the Rabaa al-Adawiya and al-Fath mosques, both important centers of pro-Brotherhood protests, will be closed for repairs.
It is unclear just how many people the Brotherhood will be able to organize, with much of the senior leadership in jail and with the psychological and physical toll recent violence has taken on the group. In addition, there has been no sign of cooperation between the Brotherhood and the secular opposition forces opposed to Mubarak, which would be necessary if the opposition hopes to pose a meaningful challenge to al-Sisi's rule.
For the military, the struggle is about more than the Muslim Brotherhood now. Having significantly weakened the Islamist group's standing, the military now means to curtail the overall protest culture that has been so destabilizing in the post-Mubarak era. Thus far, the military has manipulated the protests to try to achieve its political goals from behind the scenes, but the continued social upheaval has challenged the military's integrity and made it difficult to revive economic activity and contain jihadist threats in the Sinai. By allowing the release of Mubarak, al-Sisi has taken the issue that united demonstrators at the very beginning — dissatisfaction with Mubarak — and used it to establish his authority provocatively.
Mubarak's release is merely a symbol of the military's consolidation. The modified draft of the proposed Egyptian constitution has not yet been released, but various leaks about the document illustrate the military's intentions clearly. Turkish news agency Anadolu reported that a current amendment being proposed would rule out the possibility of removing a president because of mass protests — the very justification the military has now used twice to remove a president from power. Mada Masr, a recently established Egyptian media outlet, reported that the new constitution includes a return to the single candidate electoral system used in the Mubarak era, as well as the removal of a clause that would have prevented members of Mubarak's old National Democratic Party from running for office.
A Calculated Move
The military has a monopoly on force in the country, but it also enjoys widespread support among Egyptians. Some liberal and secular opposition forces are content with the fact that the military is ending the experiment of the past two years, which has been marked by economic stagnation and political uncertainty. The old guard in Egypt, closely tied to the military and to the Mubarak regime, has not disappeared in the past two years and continues to wield economic and political power. The National Salvation Front, a conglomeration of 35 distinct political parties and groups, is itself internally divided. Its coordinator, Mohamed ElBaradei, resigned from his post as vice president and is in de facto exile, having been charged in absentia with treason.
In addition, there is little cohesion within the group about whether to support or oppose the military's moves. Coptic Christians, often the target of sectarian violence due to their status as minorities, supported Morsi's removal from the beginning, and Islamist attacks that have reportedly damaged at least 19 churches and killed six, according to the Coptic Maspero Youth Union, have only reinforced their solidarity with the military. Salafist groups like al-Nour are caught between having cooperated with Morsi's removal in the hopes of maintaining the Islamist aspects of the constitution and not wanting to become targets of the military's crackdown themselves.
Al-Sisi's release of Mubarak is a calculated move. The military has gained significant momentum in consolidating power and now means to assert its ultimate authority over the country. This is important not only for the military's ability to govern, but also to demonstrate that it is the sole institution able to act as a stable governing force in Egypt, much to the continuing chagrin of the United States and other foreign powers with strategic interests in Cairo. Releasing Mubarak increases the stakes of the military's consolidation of its power, and for those who oppose the regime, Friday represents a day on which they must be able to demonstrate sufficient popular support to show that al-Sisi's claim to power is hollow. But the Egyptian military and al-Sisi are not bluffing.
The military has already demonstrated that it is willing to use violence to establish its writ. Friday is a pivotal moment because the Egyptian military's drive to assert its authority will violently clash with opposition attempts to defy the re-establishment of an authoritarian political system. Unless the opposition is able to unite around a shared antipathy toward Mubarak, it will likely fall short.
