Putin traveled to Baku with a large delegation that included Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Energy Minister Alexander Novak. The visit had been widely discussed in the media for several weeks, but official confirmation from Russia came only one day before the visit took place. Because the meeting was so highly touted — energy and defense industry officials from both countries met in the weeks leading up to it — the visit was expected to produce concrete agreements.
Baku and Moscow did, in fact, sign a number of agreements, the most notable of which created a joint venture between Russian oil giant Rosneft and Azerbaijan's SOCAR. But details on the venture's specific projects were left out. According to a SOCAR official, the finer points of the agreement would be disclosed in the next six months.
The Aug. 13 meeting was only the most recent instance of increased energy cooperation. In recent months, Rosneft and SOCAR officials had held talks on expanding cooperation on oil projects in Russia, Azerbaijan and other countries. The two sides have also discussed the prospect of Azerbaijan resuming oil exports through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, which had been taken offline earlier in the year because it was unprofitable.
Security agreements were also made. In fact, Russia and Azerbaijan pledged to work together on emergency and humanitarian services through 2015. Aliyev said the two countries would maintain their military-technical relations, which currently stand at $4 billion and are growing. Moreover, Russia recently delivered a $1 billion arms package to Azerbaijan — clearly, Baku still relies heavily on Russia to supply its growing defense industry. And as Putin and Aliyev held their meeting, a flotilla from Russia's Caspian Fleet stopped in the port at Baku, where officials from both navies met.
Reconsidering a Strategy
Such demonstrations of energy and security cooperation are notable; Azerbaijan traditionally tries to distance itself from Russia on these issues. Azerbaijan is the most independent state in the Caucasus, and as such it has preferred to diversify its relationships with other regional actors such as Turkey and Georgia. It has also maintained business and security ties with the United States, the European Union and Israel.
However, several recent developments have led Baku to reconsider this strategy. First, Russia has enhanced its security ties with Armenia. Second, Europe has paid less attention to Azerbaijan as it grapples with its financial and political crisis. And finally, Georgia, which is crucial to Azerbaijan as a transit state for its Southern Corridor energy projects, has been much less antagonistic to Russia since Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili came to power. The new prime minister has opted to engage with Moscow pragmatically, particularly on economic issues.
The political evolution underway in Tbilisi has forced Baku to re-evaluate its own relationship with Moscow, as evidenced by Azerbaijan's choice of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline project over the much more ambitious and strategic Nabucco West. Russia very likely influenced Baku's decision. Enhanced energy ties between SOCAR and Rosneft can be seen in the same context: Azerbaijan deems it necessary to engage Moscow rather than distance itself as Russian influence in the region grows. The same can be seen in the security front, as the recent weapons deal and port visit by the Caspian flotilla show.
However, all the recent engagements and agreements have been kept broad, not specific, likely on the part of Baku. Azerbaijan knows that it cannot completely isolate itself from Russia, but it does not want to create any partnerships that are too binding either. The recent deals in the energy and security sphere give Azerbaijan sufficient time and maneuverability to adjust its strategy if need be. And as Azerbaijani elections approach, Aliyev would prefer Russian cooperation to Russian hostility.
In the meantime, Baku has remained cooperative with other powers interested in the region. For example, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev met with U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel in Washington on Aug. 5, and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to visit Azerbaijan for a summit from Aug. 15 to Aug. 16. Diplomats and defense officials from the United States and Russia have also met recently, likely to discuss developments in the Caucasus. Along with the agreements signed during Putin's visit to Baku, these consultations indicate that Azerbaijan is adjusting to changing regional dynamics, making sure it can adapt when they change again.
