The military base in Gyumri has long been a mainstay of Russia's security presence in the Caucasus. Established in the Soviet era, the base hosts roughly 3,000 of the 5,000 Russian soldiers stationed in Armenia. In 2010, Russia and Armenia agreed to extend Russia's lease of the base to 2044. The agreement also provided for an upgrade to the base's military hardware. In addition to its technical capabilities, the base symbolizes Russia's intent to defend Armenia if it were ever attacked (Armenia is in a geopolitically tense region).
The 102nd military base is a particularly important component of Armenia's relationship with Azerbaijan, with which Yerevan has a tenuous relationship. From 1988 to 1994, the two countries fought a war over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory but tensions over the issue remain. In fact, skirmishes occur regularly around the Line of Contact, the area along the Azerbaijan-Armenia border near Nagorno-Karabakh.
Baku has said it would reclaim the territory by force, and revenue earned from its vast energy resources have enabled it to build up a military that surpasses Armenia's. What prevents Azerbaijan from following though on this claim is Russia. Indeed, Moscow's military presence in Armenia is the single greatest deterrent to large-scale military action from Azerbaijan, which cannot and will not fight Russia militarily.
A Favorable Balance
Russia has a complicated relationship with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is the most independent state in the region. Unlike Armenia, which is a member of the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization, and Georgia, which seeks membership in NATO, Azerbaijan eschews military alliances for various bilateral security arrangements. These include arrangements with Turkey and Israel, with which it has signed several major weapons deals.
Russia has also supplied Azerbaijan with weapons, though over the past two years arms shipments have been halted. However, on June 18 Russia announced that it would begin delivering weapons in accordance with a $1 billion deal it had struck with Azerbaijan between 2011 and 2012. The agreement includes main battle tanks, self-propelled artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems. A Russian defense official said the agreement had been postponed to avoid "upsetting the military balance" in the Caucasus region. He added that the deal went through because of pressure from Russia's arms industry, which relies on exports.
Russia cares less about helping Armenia and Azerbaijan militarily than about its own security position. One of the best ways to secure this position is to ensure that its two neighbors remain combative over Nagorno-Karabakh. This is why Moscow responded to Armenia's concerns over the Azerbaijani arms deal by pledging to upgrade the 102nd military base. It needed to reassure Yerevan that it would not abandon its security commitments. This creates a situation where Armenia is even more dependent on Russia than it once was, but where Azerbaijan is no less likely to cease hostilities with Armenia. And it does not change the fact that Baku cannot act militarily for fear of Russian reprisal.
Ultimately, Russia favors its security relationship with Armenia over its defense ties with Azerbaijan because the former is more strategically valuable. As long as Russia maintains its military presence in Armenia — and in the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in neighboring Georgia — Azerbaijan's options in the region are limited and Russia's position is secure. Given that no outside powers are prepared to challenge Russia in the region militarily, it is likely that Moscow will maintain this dominant position for the near- to midterm.
Editor's note: An earlier version of this analysis misstated Georgia's relationship to NATO.
