Venezuelan opposition leader and Miranda state Gov. Henrique Capriles Radonski visited Colombia as part of a regional tour seeking support for his opposition to the outcome of the April 14 Venezuelan elections in which Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was declared the winner. Although Colombia has officially acknowledged the results of the election, Santos met with Capriles during the visit. In response, Venezuelan government officials, including National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello and Foreign Minister Elias Jaua, have condemned Santos. Jaua stated that the meeting would derail currently good relations between the two countries and that Venezuela would reconsider its participation in the ongoing FARC peace talks. Cabello was more incendiary, stating that the meeting was akin to placing a bomb on the relationship.
Venezuela's participation in the FARC negotiations dates to before the death of former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Throughout his presidency, Chavez was involved in the FARC issue, whether by ignoring the rebels' activities on Venezuelan soil or serving as an intermediary for the Colombian government. The rebel group has long been a tool of varying utility for Venezuela to use against its more militarily adept neighbor. Indeed, although there may be benefits to being seen as a peacemaker in the region, it is conceivable that Venezuela would allow the peace talks to fail in order to achieve immediate political goals.
Currently, the new Venezuelan government is exceedingly sensitive to threats to its legitimacy. It is struggling to address basic economic questions that have led to a series of embarrassing challenges — most recently, a widely publicized shortage of toilet paper. Although it is unlikely that Venezuela will follow through on its threat to withdraw from the talks, it is possible. Considering Venezuela's close alliance with Cuba, if Venezuela withdraws its support, questions would arise about Havana's willingness to continue hosting the talks.
Although the relationship between Bogota and Caracas has been exceptionally good since Santos came to power in 2010, a serious deterioration in relations at this point would fit with the wild swings the relationship tends to experience. The only thing that could prevent a sustained diplomatic spat is the fact that Santos has staked his presidency, his re-election and his legacy on forging a peace deal with the FARC.
The peace talks began in October 2012, but the parties had not been able to agree on the first of five negotiating points until this week. Meanwhile, Santos has been accused domestically of being soft on violence, and the most vocal of his critics has been his erstwhile ally, former President Alvaro Uribe Velez. Having also faced criticism for recognizing Maduro's win, Santos may have decided to meet with Capriles to project an image of balance or neutrality regarding Venezuelan domestic affairs. Venezuela's strong reaction could have come as a surprise and could in the end make the meeting counterproductive for Santos' overarching strategy. Colombia will hold elections in May 2014, and for Santos to have any hope of a comprehensive, credible peace agreement, he cannot afford any major delays and could need another term in office. As a result, the Colombians are likely to try to settle the disagreement quietly rather than allow it to escalate.
