The results show that Barisan Nasional won 133 of 222 seats in the national assembly — seven fewer than in the previous election — thus maintaining its dominance in the legislature though not regaining the supermajority it lost five years ago. Pakatan Rakyat won 89 seats, up from its previous total of 82. Therefore, at the national level the parliamentary balance remains mostly the same. On the state level, the opposition lost Kedah state and was not able to retake Perak state, which it had won in 2008 but lost subsequently when some of its members switched sides, thus falling to three out of 13 state assemblies.
The opposition has not yet accepted the election results. Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim said he will not accept the results until the Election Commission investigates alleged irregularities, and he called for a protest to be held in Kuala Lumpur on May 8. Bersih, an alliance of nongovernmental groups for clean and fair elections, will also review the vote. Bersih held rallies with tens of thousands of participants in 2007, 2011 and 2012. Chief of National Police Ismail Omar has warned that the protest is illegal and the government has warned of unrest, but police have backed away from saying they would arrest participants. So far there are no signs of serious instability, let alone a major incident like the 1969 race riots.
With neither coalition having quite the showing it had hoped for, both coalitions, and many of the parties within them, will go through a painful process of internal review and possible restructuring. Anwar had claimed he would step down as opposition leader if he lost this election, but he may stay in place because of his unique ability to bring the disparate elements of the opposition together. The opposition contains Anwar's group of moderate, reform-minded, mostly Malay voters but also a devout Islamic Malay component and a secular, ethnic Chinese component. Their opposition to Barisan Nasional unites them, so not taking power may enable them to stay together; but in order to take power in the future, the coalition needs to expand beyond its current limitations, especially by expanding suburban Malay support and making inroads into rural Malay districts. Anwar's reformist party lost one federal seat and the more fundamentalist Islamic party lost two, while the Chinese Democratic Action Party gained 10, thus becoming the largest opposition party in parliament. Barisan Nasional managed to roll back the opposition in Perak and Kedah and to hold it off in Terengganu, using its ability to boost voter turnout among majority Malays in these areas, which are less densely populated than the opposition strongholds.
But Barisan Nasional cannot rest easy. The coalition won the election but still lost seats on the national and state levels, and it lost these seats at a time of strong economic growth, when opinion polls showed voters feeling the benefits of low inflation and unemployment. Thus, this election provides no security for the coalition in future elections. The general trend of a rising opposition continues. This time the opposition even won the popular vote, with an estimated 5.5 million votes to Barisan Nasional's 5.2 million (the stark difference in parliamentary seats and the popular vote follows from the electoral districts and Barisan Nasional's control of several large rural states, such as Johor, Sabah and Sarawak). Prime Minister Najib Razak may be able to stay in control of his party, because of his personal likability and leadership through a tight election, but a substantial faction will call attention to the brush with defeat, the general trend of erosion and the urgency of restoring the coalition's once-overwhelming position.
Barisan Nasional called particular attention to the loss of ethnic Chinese votes — the coalition's Chinese party fell to six seats from 15 in 2008. The opposition pointed out that it also received the votes of Malays and Indians, but the undeniably strong swing of Chinese voters away from the coalition in the past two elections causes a dilemma for the regime. If it accepts the huge loss of ethnic Chinese voters in order to focus on preserving its Malay base, then it closes itself off from about a quarter of the population. This path would lead to a breakdown of the Malay-Chinese-Indian compromise on which Barisan Nasional has relied for decades, but with population growth favoring Malay and indigenous voters, it is a possibility. However, if it focuses on regaining disenchanted voters, especially Chinese voters, then it needs to ease some of the pro-Malay policies that have become more galling to the Chinese community as it has become more prosperous — but this would cut against its Malay base at the same time that the opposition is threatening to capture urban and middle-class Malay votes. The challenge of reforming the coalition is more pressing than ever because the opposition is in its best position yet to capitalize if the economy or other factors deteriorate. But reform risks splitting the coalition, and leaders may find it easier to continue using control of the budget to buy support from its base, which presents fiscal problems in the long and does not solve the political challenge.
Malaysia's rising political competition may be beneficial — it may keep the ruling coalition in check so that it has an incentive to pursue some reforms, in the name of national reconciliation, to aid stability and growth. But it also signals growing polarization between rural and urban demographics, political ideologies and ethnic groups. The ruling coalition's trend of driving Chinese voters into the opposition and relying increasingly on its rural Malay base is particularly worrisome since it intensifies the ethnic character of the country's political contest. Compared to its neighbors, Malaysia is politically stable, fast growing and investor friendly. Assuming that the security situation remains in control in the election's aftermath, this election does not herald immediate changes to the country's political trajectory. But it does point to an uptick in political contention for a country whose stability stands out among its neighbors.
