Politics in Malaysia have raised intense passions since the previous general election, in 2008, when the opposition parties delivered an unprecedented defeat to the ruling Barisan Nasional (Malay for "National Front") coalition. This year's elections are being billed as a decisive choice on Malaysia's future. Prime Minister Najib Razak has warned of "catastrophic ruin" if the opposition wins, while opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has warned that the ruling coalition may resort to voter fraud. According to the latest opinion polls, the two coalitions are tied.
Demographics have heavily shaped Malaysia's political system. The population of 28 million is mostly divided between indigenous groups and ethnic Malays (about 67 percent), Chinese (about 25 percent) and Indians (about 7.3 percent). Since independence, a single coalition has united various parties that command majorities in these three communal groups. The dominance of the coalition, originally called the Alliance Party, came under threat during the 1969 election, when opposition parties first deprived the alliance of a supermajority in the parliament. When Chinese groups celebrated the election results, Malay groups responded, resulting in race riots and a national emergency — and a military crackdown and the suspension of parliamentary rule for a year and a half.
After this crisis, the alliance reconstituted itself as Barisan Nasional, its current name. It brought Chinese and Indian minorities under a banner of Malay dominance, and ruled almost unchallenged until 2008. Its success strongly depended upon the New Economic Policy, a policy of conferring special benefits upon the Malay majority. Pro-Malay policies still affect most areas of official social and political organization and bolster rule by the Malay elite.
Malaysia's rise as a newly industrialized country on the model of the "Asian Tiger" economies coincided with a period of political stability provided by Barisan Nasional, and in particular by its extremely influential leader Mahathir Mohamad, who led the country from 1981 to 2003 and still maintains a great deal of influence in the coalition. Mahathir steered Malaysia through the Asian financial crisis and oversaw a rebound in the economy in contrast to neighbors, notably Indonesia, which saw upheaval. In the 2004 elections, after Mahathir stepped down, the coalition won its largest majority in the parliament ever. Mahathir seemed to have managed stepping down without triggering a transitional crisis, until the electoral shockwave of 2008.
The 2008 election saw a coalition of opposition parties win 82 out of 222 seats, depriving the ruling coalition of a two-thirds supermajority for the first time since 1969. The opposition took control of four of the country's 13 state assemblies — Kedah, Penang, Perak and Selangor joined Kelantan under opposition rule. These unprecedented opposition gains triggered a crisis and leadership change within Barisan Nasional, leading to the rise of Najib, a coalition stalwart whose father and uncle are former prime ministers.
The 2008 election may in part have reflected temporary factors, such as spiking inflation, but longer term socio-economic developments are driving change across the country. Malaysia is an increasingly prosperous country, with a growing, urbanizing population that is getting wealthier. Per capita gross domestic product rose by as much as 16 percent from 2004 to 2008. Yet the political system has failed to keep up with changing expectations. Notably, the opposition has taken root in the most densely populated areas — the four state assemblies the opposition won in 2008 have more than 60 percent urbanization in contrast with several Barisan Nasional strongholds.
Even if Pakatan Rakyat fails to take the parliament, this election will be significant. It is highly unlikely that the ruling coalition can win enough seats to regain its former dominance. A larger opposition bloc in the parliament will mark a more powerful challenge. General dissatisfaction with the ruling coalition's nepotism and overall corruption and pro-Malay policies has taken hold, and ongoing urbanization, economic growth, civil liberalization and a rise in incomes have supported a new class of voters who will continue to challenge the status quo until the ruling coalition adjusts or loses power.
For decades, Malaysia has maintained a high degree of predictability for investors and policy flexibility to attract investment. The question is whether the rise of the opposition and recalcitrance of the old system will break down this advantage. All parties have an interest in maintaining economic openness and vitality, but if they are drawn deeper into a struggle for power, economic policy may suffer. Because the system consists of parties defined by communal identity and ideologies unlikely to change, like religion, growing political uncertainty may trigger higher unrest or violence. While there are many reasons to view the evolution of Malaysian democracy as positive, it may intensify polarization, which could adversely affect stability and the predictability of government policy.
Thus, whether the election results in an opposition win or just a larger opposition bloc in parliament — or less likely, in the Barisan Nasional regaining seats — the growing political competition in a country long known for its relative stability will be more obtrusive. Malaysia may avoid the deep disruptions Indonesia experienced from 1998 to 2004, but it may not handle the rise of a viable opposition as smoothly as Japan.
