Arbil and Baghdad's most recent round of negotiations comes right after a severe clash between Sunni Arab protesters and Iraqi security forces in the northern Iraqi city of Hawija that began April 23. Insurgent activity has since picked up in the region just south of the disputed regions of Kirkuk and Mosul, including an April 30 attack against security forces outside the critical oil hub of Baiji. The Kurds view the northward spread of violence perpetrated by Sunni Arab nationalists and jihadists with growing apprehension. The Kurdistan Regional Government's oil and natural gas reserves and unique autonomous political status make it a target for the insurgents, which see the Kurds as attempting to break up the territorial sovereignty of the Arab nation-state of Iraq.
The Kurdistan Regional Government's local security forces, known locally as the Peshmerga, have been quite successful in transforming Kurdish-administered regions into the safest in Iraq. The region's relative safety and its significant hydrocarbon reserves have drawn ample investment into the region and have spurred development, in stark contrast to the areas of the country most heavily populated by Sunni Arabs. A series of attacks by Sunni Arab nationalists could undermine the perception of Arbil's ability to maintain law and order. The Kurds cannot afford such a blow, given the technical and political constraints already impeding their ability to raise oil production and exports.
Baghdad's willingness to negotiate with the Kurds is also a reflection of its own constraints. Al-Maliki was able to count on Sunni Arab support during his recent dispute with the Kurds over the federal budget, which led to the Kurdish politicians' boycott of parliament. But escalating Sunni attacks and the lethal involvement of Iraqi security forces are straining Baghdad's relationship with Sunni Arab tribal and political leaders. The recent spate of attacks in northern Iraq and the elevated risks to critical northern energy infrastructure prompted al-Maliki to turn to the Kurds, Baghdad's traditional competitor for authority and security in the north, in order to manage the rising threat of a Sunni Arab-led insurgency.
Despite Progress, Challenges Remain
The results of the Shiite-Kurd negotiations are not yet known. Given the complexity of the issues, it is highly unlikely that any final, binding agreements were made. Kurdish government sources touched on the possibility of compensation from the Iraqi government to Kurdish families affected by Saddam Hussein's anti-Kurdish campaigns, as well as the possible establishment of joint security patrols involving Peshmerga and Iraqi security forces in disputed areas, such as Mosul and Kirkuk.
Iraqi national media outlets indicated that both sides agreed to establish special committees to discuss the more difficult disputes between Arbil and Baghdad. These issues include administrative control over disputed regions; payments by Baghdad to cover fees charged by foreign energy companies developing Kurdish oil and natural gas resources; and broad amendments to the 2013 budget. Arbil has for years sought to codify certain payments as permanent items within the budget, hoping to secure not only Baghdad's funding but also recognition of Kurdish political prerogatives, such as Arbil's maintenance of separate security forces and its energy industry.
These larger issues remain unresolved, and the recent Kurdish-Shiite rapprochement is one of convenience in the face of a mutual threat. This is not lost on the Kurds, and it is not lost on Barzani. Facing rising political competition ahead of elections later in 2013, Barzani is eager to gain some concessions from Baghdad. And while Iraq's Kurdish region has received substantial foreign capital and infrastructure development in recent years, its lagging oil production and exports have left its government dependent on federal oil funds and budgetary allowances.
Ankara's Involvement
Turkey has been trying to draw northern Iraq — especially the Kurdistan Regional Government — further into its sphere of influence. Turkish construction firms have built much of the recent infrastructure, Turkish loans have funded a good amount of it and Turkish energy companies, such as Genel, are the largest players in Kurdish oil and natural gas fields. But Ankara has yet to move unilaterally in its support for the Kurds, as it could do by offering to pay production fees to energy companies operating in Iraqi Kurdish territory or by developing independent energy infrastructure for the Kurds.
Ankara also has its eyes on Baghdad — Turkey hopes to increase its overall presence in Iraq while pushing back Iranian influence. Despite Turkey's ambitions, Arbil still has to deal with Baghdad in Iraq, especially considering that Baghdad's Shiite-led government shares the Kurdish interest in helping curb the spread of Sunni insurgency. While Arbil and Baghdad's fundamental competition for power will almost certainly continue, we can expect both sides to find avenues of cooperation, especially as violence from the Syrian conflict continues to spill over into Iraq.
