According to the constitution, the President of the National Assembly — currently longtime Chavez supporter Diosdado Cabello — would take power in the event that the president can no longer carry out his duties and would be required to call for elections within 30 days. Cabello is known to have a close relationship with the military and is considered a powerful and pragmatic political player. However, he is not particularly popular, and his ability to leverage his relationship with the military will be limited by the potential for a significant public backlash against any kind of perceived coup attempt. The last three such attempts failed as a result of public resistance, and the military will hesitate to get involved unless it appears that key individuals or interests are under threat.
Chavez's Fractious Inner Circle
Before undergoing surgery, Chavez declared Maduro his chosen successor to lead the United Socialist Party of Venezuela. The political opposition in Venezuela will likely again support Miranda State Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski, whose bid to unseat Chavez in the Oct. 7 presidential elections failed. After the ruling party crushed the opposition in the October presidential election as well as in December's gubernatorial elections, Maduro stands a high chance of winning an election against Capriles. The big question is whether he can hold onto power.
As a result of Chavez's leadership style since he took power in 1999, his immediate circle is fractious, and its members derive the majority of their power from Chavez's sponsorship. This means that the course of the months and years following Chavez's departure will be highly dependent on the emergence of a clear leader or the creation of a balance of power among naturally competitive politicians, each with their own power base. In addition to Maduro's popular appeal and Cabello's military support, there is Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez, whose role in Venezuela's national oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, gives him intelligence and influence in the country's most important economic center.
Although Maduro is more charismatic as a politician than his Chavista counterparts, it is not entirely clear that he can confidently lead the governing party through challenging economic times. Maduro draws his political legitimacy from his ideological stance and his relationship with Chavez. His statements Jan. 1 were designed to emphasize political continuity, praising socialist government policies and the contributions of Venezuela's closest ally, Cuba. Maduro, whose political base is entirely defined by Chavez, will craft his statements in the coming weeks to increase his credibility in the eyes of the Venezuelans who re-elected Chavez in October.
When Chavez fully departs from the political scene, there will be a contest among his former supporters — none of whom has Chavez's popularity or political power — to direct and stabilize the party's control over the country. There will be enormous economic pressures to confront. The government must consider imposing fiscal cutbacks and devaluing Venezuela's currency, or the cash flow problem facing the country will become increasingly difficult. However, these measures would come with political costs, and a new, fragile regime may be particularly vulnerable to public dissatisfaction. Ultimately, Venezuela's economic health depends on the oil sector, and the inability to assure investors that Venezuela is reliable has limited investment in recent years.
Over the next several years, Venezuela will have to improve its business climate in order to attract new investments to its substantial oil deposits. And although there are serious concerns about Venezuela's stability in the short to medium term, Venezuela's substantial natural resources give the country a strategic advantage in recovering from crisis.
