Roughly 4,500 delegates will attend the African National Congress leadership congress, which is held every five years. The 2012 congress will be held in Mangaung, Free State province, and the delegates will be organized largely along provincial lines. Provinces vote to promote or defend a variety of interests, but the interests of ethnic groups influence the vote significantly.
Provincial organizations favored Zuma even before he gained Xhosa support. The president hails from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa's most populous province, which hosts more African National Congress members than any other province. With 974 delegates, KwaZulu-Natal accounts for 22 percent of all delegates. Obviously, Zuma benefits from a numerical advantage. Conversely, Zuma's African National Congress rival Motlanthe will count on voter support from Limpopo province, the base of his Northern Sotho ethnic group. Limpopo will send only 574 delegates, or 13 percent of the total delegates, to Mangaung.
But it is the vote of Eastern Cape province's ethnic Xhosa that is most coveted. Eastern Cape is South Africa's and the Africa National Congress' second most populous province. As such, 676 delegates will represent the Africa National Congress at the leadership congress. With Xhosa support, Zuma can expect votes from more than half of the Africa National Congress delegation. Motlanthe's chances of beating Zuma are remote.
Future Labor Strife
By supporting Zuma over Motlanthe, the Xhosa probably have determined that they stand to gain more politically in the long term with a Zulu over a Northern Sotho. Assuming he wins the Africa National Congress presidency, Zuma will become South Africa's president while Motlanthe's political bloc will at best retain its prominence for the time being but fade in 2017, when the Africa National Congress holds its next leadership congress. That congress will thus introduce an entirely new platform for aspiring Africa National Congress leaders, instead of seeing the lingering presence of Northern Sotho elite vying for more power. Having been out of power since the Mandela and Mbeki administrations (1994-2008), the Xhosa will likely reassert themselves on the national political scene.
In the meantime, politically motivated labor strife will linger for the next couple of months as the Africa National Congress camps complete their leadership campaigns. To safeguard their careers, disgruntled Northern Sotho elite, such as perennial leadership aspirant and Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale, will ease off labor strife. For his part, Motlanthe likely will quietly abandon his challenge and promote a moderate accommodation with Zuma, keeping the Northern Sotho in power somewhat even if they never win the presidency. Striking will end gradually once unions get what they want for their members.
