Labor unions are very influential in South African society. Represented by the Congress of South African Trade Unions, unions are an important component of the ruling African National Congress alliance, and they factor prominently in political decisions. They conduct annual collective bargaining sessions to demand improved wages and living conditions. Moreover, unions regularly conduct strikes, which can mobilize thousands of participants and can last for days or weeks at a time. Violence is commonly employed during strikes, as are heavy-handed police responses.

When disputes such as strikes arise, unions sometimes abide by their own set of laws until the leadership from major stakeholders — unions, businesses and the government — intervenes. As a result, labor activity, which includes strikes and the ability to mobilize tens of thousands of potential voters, makes union leaders politically relevant as they push their agendas through the African National Congress.

South African President Jacob Zuma, an ethnic Zulu, has every reason to want to resolve the Lonmin dispute. The Congress of South African Trade Unions, of which the National Union of Mineworkers is a member, generally has supported Zuma, who is up for re-election as the African National Congress president in December. In South Africa, the ruling party chooses the country's president from within its ranks, and the African National Congress is all but assured an electoral victory in the 2014 national elections. Were he to retain his post as the party's president, he would almost certainly win another term as South African president. Zuma is therefore courting labor unions to populate the African National Congress with his supporters. 

Zuma's challengers are political elites form the Northern Sotho ethnic group. Among these challengers are Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe, African National Congress Treasurer General Mathews Phosa, Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale and former African National Congress Youth League President Julius Malema. These contenders understand that their opportunity for overtaking the presidency is remote, and if they want to stave off several years of Zulu-dominated politics and secure their place in a successor government in 2017, they must do so during the current election season. Over the past two years, the African National Congress Youth League has mobilized protesters to discredit the Zuma administration, so Sotho involvement in the Lonmin incident cannot be ruled out.

Ultimately, the upcoming elections will bring about a quick resolution to the labor dispute that precipitated the Aug. 16 incident. For Zuma, the price for the Congress of South African Unions' mediation efforts will be a greater role in the African National Congress' decision-making process. With elections just a few months away, Zuma will likely pay that price.