The feud between Deripaska and Potanin over their shared firm, Norilsk Nickel, has been ongoing for four years. Each man controls his own major metals firm — Deripaska's Rusal is the world's largest aluminum producer, and Potanin's Interros is one of the largest mining investment firms — and each wants control of Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest nickel producer. Rusal currently holds a 25 percent stake in Norilsk Nickel, while Interros has a 28 percent stake.
Deripaska and Potanin's relationship through Norilsk Nickel has been shaky from the start, but tensions skyrocketed in 2010 when Interros increased its presence on the board of Norilsk Nickel at Rusal's expense, and Rusal responded with accusations of fraud by Interros. Since then, the very public dispute between Rusal and Interros has mired the companies' performance. Many of their planned expansions, such as Norilsk Nickel's attempt to move into Vietnam, have been rejected partially out of fear for the companies' futures.
It looked as though there could have been a solution to the feud in 2010, when Alisher Usmanov's Metalloinvest, one of the largest iron ore producers in the world and Russia's fifth-largest steel producer, discussed merging with Norilsk Nickel. This would mean three very powerful — and fiercely competitive — oligarchs would have been running the nickel company.
The Kremlin supported this deal at the time, not only because it would put an end to Deripaska and Potanin's disagreement, but also because Moscow has long wanted the metals and mining industry to consolidate into just a handful of companies. There has been much debate for years about whether to consolidate Russia's metals and mining industry to make it more like the country's energy industry, with just one or two state champions under Kremlin control.
But two things have stood in the way of the Kremlin making a major consolidation. First, in the late 1990s and early 2000s, there was a series of battles between the metals oligarchs in which several major company owners and employees were killed. In the wake of that crisis, which was dubbed the "steel wars," the oligarchs who were left running the metals companies were the ones who fought hardest to survive. Even the Kremlin had stayed out of the battle. Around 2007-2008, the Kremlin began considering once again trying to consolidate a few of the metals companies, but then Russia was hit by the financial crisis, leaving the government not only unable to financially take on the massive companies but also in need of the metals oligarchs' cash to keep the country stable.
Now, with Putin's comment Aug. 20, it appears the Kremlin is revisiting the possibility of attempting to consolidate the metals companies. Moreover, unnamed sources close to the presidential administration have said the Kremlin is considering forcing Rusal and Interros to sell parts of their stakes in Norilsk Nickel to a state-owned bank — in other words, to the Kremlin.
Putin's statement could be intended to scare Deripaska and Potanin into settling their drawn-out dispute, since neither wants to forfeit control of such a powerful firm to the Kremlin. It could also be that the Kremlin is actually ready to take a slice of Norilsk Nickel. With the metals oligarchs still very powerful, securing a position in the metals industry would be both politically important and financially attractive for Moscow. The Kremlin has long been focused on Norilsk Nickel, and for good reason — the firm brought in a little under $13 billion in revenue last year. Lastly, the metals firms have operations in Latin America, Africa and East Asia, which means they could be useful as another Kremlin tool around the world.
But even Putin's suggesting that the Kremlin would resolve the Rusal-Interros feud could send shockwaves through the metals oligarchs, a group that is really the last of Russia's oligarchs. The metals oligarchs, who hold incredible wealth in the country, have avoided Russian politics in order to keep their empires. Should they believe their sovereignty is finally under threat, Putin could have a new struggle on his hands — one that could reverberate through the country politically and financially.