Recent rumors of a potential purchase by RUSAL of Norilsk Nickel caused the latter's shares to surge 8.5 percent June 1. Such a merger between two commodity giants typically would be neither unexpected nor unusual, particularly since the market has seen a rush of mergers as commodity prices soar to record highs. What is intriguing is not the market shares at stake, however, but what it means for a certain Russian oligarch — and, in turn, for the Kremlin's moves in the commodities market. A merger between the two giants would provide the new entity with virtually unprecedented power in the commodities industry, rivaling even Gazprom's influence. Following its merger with the Sual Group and Swiss company Glencore, RUSAL became the largest aluminum and alumina producer, accounting for around 12.5 percent of global aluminum production and trumping fellow industry leaders Alcan and Alcoa. Norilsk, already the world's top nickel producer, looks set to consolidate its market position further with a probable winning bid for LionOre Mining International. Oleg Deripaska controls RUSAL with a 66 percent stake. Deripaska is former Russian President Boris Yeltsin's son-in-law, and as such has been protected from any potential prosecution. When Putin became president in 2000, Yeltsin made the new president promise not to prosecute certain members of his "family" as long as they did not get in Putin's way. Whether such a deal would remain in effect after one of the parties to the compact died, however, remains in doubt. Yeltsin died April 23, meaning all bets were off. Deripaska has not always been in Putin's good graces. Though he has never confronted the Kremlin, he also has never fully bent to its will. Until now, Deripaska's top priority has been looking out for himself without crossing the Kremlin. Now, with his protector gone, Deripaska knows he has three possible fates: 1. ending up like Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who faced trial and imprisonment following a showdown with the Kremlin; 2. becoming a Putin yes-man; 3. bowing out of the Russian political and business scene, but taking a chunk of cash as a consolation prize. If Deripaska elects to act as Putin's best friend and become a tool of the state, taking the company where the Kremlin wants, he would wind up in Putin's inner circle for the first time. Though Russia is not in the habit of allowing companies with that much market share to remain private for long, if Deripaska proves loyal to the Kremlin he could retain his position. That RUSAL was permitted to gain a substantial market share through a merger with Glencore and Sual — and that Sual head Viktor Vekselberg was invited to accompany Putin on a trip to South Africa, along with representatives of other companies interested in Africa's resources — suggests a certain level of toleration for Deripaska, as long as RUSAL and Deripaska are willing to become tools of the state. But RUSAL's recent moves suggest Deripaska's sense of self-preservation is intact — unlike certain other (ex-)oligarchs — and that he has chosen the third option. Deripaska thus might well fatten up RUSAL and hand it over to the Kremlin like a good little oligarch and, taking a page from Roman Abramovich's book, make a graceful (and wealthy) exit from Russia's political and business scene.