The Meqdad clan, a Lebanese Shiite family, has kidnapped 30 supporters of the Free Syrian Army, including a Turkish businessman in Lebanon, in retaliation for Syrian rebels' kidnapping a relative of the clan in Syria. The Meqdad family claimed they would swap their hostages for Hassan Meqdad, who was taken by rebels. The Meqdad family issued a statement to local television saying it held Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey responsible for Hassan Meqdad's kidnapping and would be willing to "take escalatory measures depending on the latest developments." It did not say exactly what those measures would be, but the Saudi Embassy in Beirut issued a warning to Saudi citizens in Lebanon on Aug. 15 to leave the country immediately. Combined with increasing political tensions in the region, such an escalation could influence the regional political negotiations over Syria.
Kidnappings are a common tool for political intimidation in Lebanon, though they are not typically attributed to individual families, and there has been a spate of kidnappings since the Syrian uprising began 18 months ago. Other Lebanese clans are now also rumored to be planning copycat kidnappings.
The Free Syrian Army claimed that Hassan Meqdad crossed into Syria on a mission for Hezbollah. In a video aired Aug. 13 on Al Arabiya, Hassan Meqdad is shown saying he met with Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, who told him and others to go to Syria and support the regime there. Hezbollah has denied an association with Meqdad and has distanced itself from the incident.
Hezbollah has seemed increasingly hesitant to expand its involvement in Syria, and Stratfor sources indicate that it may even be looking for a way to completely disassociate itself from Syrian President Bashar al Assad. That said, Hezbollah still has a very long history with the Alawite regime in Syria and with its regional patron, Iran, and may be distancing itself due to domestic pressure but is maintaining some connection in order to serve Iranian interests.
There is a possibility that Iran may have instigated the kidnappings. Tehran is desperate to find a way to be included in any Syrian transition talks, which explains Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's attendance at the emergency Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit in Mecca from Aug. 14 to Aug. 15.
But Iran may also be seeking other sources of leverage against the United States and its regional Sunni alliance. Rising instability in Lebanon, which so far has remained remarkably stable despite the turmoil in neighboring Syria, and the targeting of foreigners — including U.S., Turkish, Qatari and Saudi citizens — could cause the United States and its regional partners to reconsider excluding Iran from any Syrian transition talks.
The spillover of the Syrian conflict into Lebanon and a broader target set of potential kidnapping victims could undo Lebanon's precarious stability and endanger the United States and regional Sunni powers' interests in the country. The U.S. Embassy in Beirut already issued a warning Aug. 10 of the increased possibility of attacks, including kidnappings, on its citizens. Washington has openly backed the removal of the al Assad regime and has been working with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to support the Syrian rebels and plan for a transition.
Combined with increasing political tensions between factions within the Lebanese government, the recent arrest of pro-Syrian former parliament member Michel Samaha, and indictments of senior Syrian security officials for plotting bomb attacks in Lebanon, an escalation in kidnappings — especially of foreigners — could be used to influence the politics surrounding the ongoing conflict in Syria and the broader regional struggle with Iran.
