Saudi King Abdullah has called an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation for Aug. 14-15 to discuss the situation in Syria. Like many regional bodies, the organization does not have much power; with Syria's likely expulsion from the group, the Mecca summit will probably not achieve much. But Saudi Arabia's goal for the meeting is not to urge the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to take meaningful action; rather, the gathering will give Riyadh a chance to assert its leadership in the Muslim world on the issue of Syria. Saudi Arabia's first objective is to eliminate any potential opposition or competition from other Sunni Muslim states such as Egypt, Turkey and Qatar. Second, but equally important, is Riyadh's goal of reaching accommodation with Iran.
Turkey, Egypt and Qatar have attempted to position themselves at the forefront of Sunni powers interested in influencing the direction of Syria's transition. These same countries have also competed with Saudi Arabia for influence in the Sunni world.
Turkey already provides shelter to Free Syrian Army leaders and fighters, as well as to the Syrian National Council and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. Ankara has an operational and logistics hub near its border with Syria to help the rebels. It also provided refuge on two occasions for defected general and former regime ally Manaf Tlass, a potential frontrunner to lead a transitional regime. Turkish media reported Sunday, during U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit, that Ankara would seek U.N. approval for the creation of Turkish-managed "safety zones" inside Syria. The reports also noted that Turkey would be willing to move forward with the plan even without U.N. approval.
Egypt has hosted meetings of rebel groups, and rebels have reportedly stated that they might establish a Syrian government-in-exile in Cairo. But Egypt is clearly overwhelmed by domestic issues and by those related to the Palestinian arena. Cairo has also aligned itself with Saudi Arabia and its campaign to diminish Iranian influence in the region.
Qatar, meanwhile, has become home to a select group of defected Syrian political leaders and diplomats, including the recently defected Syrian Prime Minister Riyad Hijab and Syrian Ambassador to Iraq Nawaf al Fares. More important, Qatar has played a leading role in breaking down Iran and Syria's influence over Hamas.
Saudi Arabia, along with Qatar and Turkey, has consistently supported the rebels in Syria, though it is also working with actors that Turkey and the United States oppose. Riyadh views the potential change of Syrian leadership and the rise of a Sunni-led government as an important opportunity to roll back Iranian influence in the region.
Riyadh and Tehran have competed for regional dominance in the Persian Gulf since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 (an invasion Saudi Arabia vehemently opposed). The loss of an ally in Damascus will leave Iran's position in Iraq vulnerable in the long term, making it a strategic gain for the Saudis. Though it has never been admitted, elements in Saudi Arabia are allegedly supporting the insurgency through Sunni jihadist groups. Riyadh would be glad to see Tehran's influence curtailed along Saudi Arabia's northern border; a Sunni-led regime in Syria could help accomplish that.
Iran, however, isn't backing down from its position in Syria or from its support of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Tehran is already looking for ways to join discussions about a transition. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has already arrived in Saudi Arabia for the meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation — at the invitation of the Saudi King. Ahmadinejad hopes to influence the discussions taking place in Mecca and to block any efforts by Saudi Arabia to bring about a consensus regarding a transition plan for Syria.
Stratfor has received indications that as early as last week, an Iranian national security team visited Riyadh to discuss Syria. These indications and Ahmadinejad’s presence at the summit — where it has already been made clear that Syrian expulsion will be on the agenda — suggest that Riyadh and Tehran may be working to strike a deal to avoid a mutual worst-case scenario in Syria.
Saudi Arabia and Iran fundamentally clash over Syria's future. But Saudi Arabia and its allies — Turkey, Qatar and especially the United States — want to avoid an insurgency in Syria similar to the one in Iraq. Iran will suggest that its inclusion in any transition agreement will help avoid such an outcome. It's unclear whether anything will be agreed upon, but the fact that the Saudi king extended an invitation to Ahmadinejad suggests that the Riyadh is open to negotiation.
Riyadh seldom acts without extensive deliberation, but this meeting — called four days after a bombing at the National Security headquarters in Damascus turned the tide against al Assad — shows that Saudi Arabia aims to take advantage of the opportunity that has opened up in Syria. There are a range of constraints to overcome, but building support and consensus within the Muslim world, and especially among Riyadh's Sunni allies, is the first step.
