Uzbekistan needed to exit the CSTO in order to expand ties with outside countries, so it suspended its membership June 28. There are now rumors that Tashkent could receive heavy military equipment from the United States or increase security cooperation with China.
Turkmenistan, which has a history of tensions with Tashkent over border and ethnic minority issues, is concerned by this possibility — as well as Uzbekistan's view of itself as the dominant regional power. Moreover, at $1.6 billion, Uzbekistan has the largest military budget in Central Asia. If it received U.S. heavy weapons, its military advantage over Turkmenistan would widen.
Turkmenistan has enhanced its military power recently through purchases in 2011 of 30 T-90S main battle tanks and a speedboat equipped with a missile launcher. But with a smaller military budget than both Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan (which allots some $3.1 billion to its military), the Turkmen military cannot match those of its neighbors.
Meanwhile, both Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have claimed a recently discovered Caspian Sea oil field, known as "Kapaz" to the Azerbaijanis and "Serdar" to the Turkmen, believed to contain at least 500 million barrels of crude oil. The most recent bout of tensions began when an Azeri border patrol boat stopped a Turkmen vessel that was conducting research in the disputed region. In response, Baku summoned the Turkmen ambassador to its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ashgabat said it would take the dispute to the United Nations.
Neither side currently is interested in escalating the quarrel beyond the diplomatic level, but Turkmenistan is still nervous due to Azerbaijan's signing of a $1.6 billion arms deal with Israel in February 2012. The deal reportedly included unmanned aerial vehicles, Barak-8 naval air defense systems, Green Pine missile defense radar systems and Gabriel anti-ship missiles.
In light of these developments, Turkmenistan likely will continue to inch toward Moscow to protect itself against regional threats. But Ashgabat will remain wary of moving too close to Moscow, since the Turkmens are just as paranoid about Russia's intentions as they are about those of Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan.
