Japan and China have long disputed the Senkaku Islands, which occupy a strategic maritime corridor in the East China Sea. The islands lie 410 kilometers (255 miles) west of Japan's Okinawa Island and 350 kilometers east of the Chinese coast and are believed to hold significant energy and mineral resources.
Since 1972, when the islands reverted from U.S. control to Japanese control, disputes over their sovereignty became a recurring diplomatic issue between Japan and China, and civilians would frequently organize and participate in activities to protect each country's claim to the islands. Despite these incidents, both governments exercised restraint for the sake of broader Sino-Japanese relations, until a boat collision in 2010 resulted in a serious deterioration in bilateral relations that has not yet recovered completely. Tense rhetoric and frequent military activities in the East China Sea have become standard over the past two years. However, recent comments about the Senkaku Islands are mostly due to Japanese domestic political events.
Recent Developments
The idea of buying the Senkaku Islands entered domestic political debate April 16. On that date, nationalist Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara unveiled a plan to negotiate with the Kurihara family and use publicly raised funds to purchase the islands. His plan was an attempt to pressure the government to more actively assert sovereignty over the disputed islands. The move has since gained strong public support, reportedly receiving more than 1.3 billion yen ($16.3 million) in donations.
Japan's rising nationalist sentiment, promoted by Ishihara and also associated with other popular regional politicians such as Nagoya Mayor Kawamura and Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto, likely prompted Noda to shift his stance, which had been to distance himself and his party from the more inflammatory comments for the sake of relations with China. However, due to his Cabinet's extreme lack of popularity, Noda has become more willing to consider policies in line with the growing regionalist movement.
Noda's Dilemma
Less than a year has passed since the inauguration of the first Noda Cabinet and the government finds itself in internal conflict with an uncertain grip on power. Moreover, the two dominant parties — the ruling Democratic Party of Japan and opposition Liberal Democratic Party — are both unpopular, creating an opportunity for emerging regionalist parties to make gains in national politics and to challenge the political and bureaucratic status quo.
The public is also becoming more interested in changing Japan's subdued postwar foreign policy, especially the government's passive posture regarding China, which is increasingly perceived as a regional troublemaker. As Japan's meek foreign policy has come to be seen as yet another deficiency of the political establishment, debates over "normalizing" the Japanese military and its constitutionally imposed pacifism have been linked with the broader need to reform the political system.
By matching the DPJ's policy to the demands raised by the popular regionalists, Noda is attempting to prevent the DPJ from appearing out of touch and ineffectual, while in effect recognizing the rising profile of the regionalist reform movement.
Although buying the Senkaku Islands could help shore up some popular support for Noda's administration, it risks damaging relations with Beijing. In fact, during a previous spike in tensions over the islands, Beijing retaliated with trade sanctions and the suspension of government-level exchanges, including talks over the demarcation and development of natural gas assets in the disputed East China Sea. Tokyo's response to Beijing appeared weak, causing the Japanese people to view their government as incapable of responding to China's provocations and further increasing popular dissatisfaction. Already under pressure domestically, Noda's moves to bolster his administration's nationalist credentials will surely collide with Beijing's core interests, thus drawing a harsh response from China and stronger demands in Japan for a more assertive foreign policy.
Beijing's Concerns
China understands that the latest development is primarily a product of Japan's domestic political situation and that the Japanese military and foreign policy will not change significantly without serious political reforms. Beijing knows Tokyo is unlikely to officially change the status of the islands in the short term because doing so would drastically change Sino-Japanese relations. However, Beijing is concerned more with the long term.
To Beijing, the dispute over the Senkaku Islands is indicative of the entire contemporary history of Sino-Japanese relations. The islands are not only central to China's control of its maritime periphery and a potentially abundant source of energy and minerals, but they are also a convenient tool to encourage and utilize domestic nationalist sentiment against Japan. The Chinese government has demonstrated its ability to manage tensions so far, but with its own sensitive domestic political and economic transitions, significantly rising nationalism could work both for and against Beijing. While it is in Beijing's interest to manipulate the tensions over the islands, it does not want nationalist fervor to get out of control.
Beijing is more concerned with the prospect of a shift in political and military dynamics as a result of a growing nationalist trend in Japan. This rising nationalism could create a more hostile neighbor in China's periphery and could increase competition in the maritime boundary that would challenge Beijing's security environment. Such a development is sure to worry China and will make it increasingly difficult for both countries to go back to their previously predictable relations.
The United States' interest in the issue only adds to Beijing's concerns. Since the 2010 boat collision, the United States has reassured Japan that the Senkaku Islands fall within the scope of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, which obligates the United States to defend Japan. The United States has also offered to mediate Japan and China's disputes over the islands. Though a crisis in Sino-Japanese relations is not in the United States' interest, the tensions could be an opportunity to further its plan for engagement in East Asia.
