China and Japan have agreed to hold a fifth round of talks in the third week of May in Tokyo on disputed natural gas deposits beneath the East China Sea. Previous talks have failed to produce tangible results on the issue, which has become more contentious given strained relations between the two countries. 
China benefits from anything that allows it to bash Japan, since doing so foments nationalism, thereby creating a source of internal unity. Whipping up nationalism is thus critical to Beijing's promotion of painful restructuring outlined in its five-year plan released in March. Under these circumstances, this newest round of talks is unlikely to yield any progress on determining the ownership of resources in the East China Sea. Japan has suggested jointly developing the disputed areas if they cannot reach an agreement on territorial demarcation; the Chinese have refused such a plan. China is already developing gas fields in the disputed waters — a process it will not suspend. If negotiations fail, a logical next step for Japan would be to start its own development in the area, thus creating the risk of conflict with China in the area. Though conflict is not in China's interests, China could use Japan's initiation of development as fodder for fueling nationalism in China, a tactic frequently used by Beijing for its own political gains. Though China will use the Japan card as needed to stir up nationalism, it still needs to present itself as a responsible stakeholder in international relations. Making responsible overtures in foreign relations allows China to reduce international pressure on Beijing, therefore giving it more room to focus on domestic affairs. Japan, on the other hand, will make a last-ditch effort at the talks to hammer out a joint exploration deal giving both parties access to the disputed territories. It does not want an armed clash with China, like the confrontation it almost had with Korea in late April. Nevertheless, it is preparing its own exploration in the disputed waters of the East China Sea even as it makes one more stab to try to defuse tensions with China. This will allow Tokyo to show international critics that it, too, made every effort at conciliation prior to tapping the East China Sea's contested resources. Despite the upcoming negotiations, substantial progress with Japan on the East China Sea resource quarrel is not part of China's calculus, given Beijing's growing demand for energy resources. Though some minor concessions may be reached to forward the image of an evolution in Sino-Japanese relations, tensions between the two nations will remain.
