Mexico's Political Parties Look Ahead to 2012 Presidential Election

Editor's note: Mexico's citizens will head to the polls July 1 to vote for the country's next president. The following analysis, which was originally published Dec. 21, 2011, remains relevant but has been updated to include recent details. Links to additional election coverage can be found at the bottom of the analysis.

Summary

The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) on Dec. 17 named former Mexico state Gov. Enrique Pena Nieto as its presidential nominee, positioning him to run against Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and National Action Party (PAN) candidate Josefina Vasquez Mota in the July 1, 2012, election. Mexican voters are ready for a shift away from the PAN after years of drug cartel-related violence. Pena Nieto and the PRI are currently ahead in polls, but Lopez Obrador's resurgence under a united PRD could lead to a close vote.

Analysis

Most recent polling figures from national media outlet Milenio show that PRI candidate Pena Nieto is in the lead with 46.9 percent of the vote, while PRD candidate Lopez Obrador holds 28.5 percent and PAN candidate Vazquez Mota holds 22.4 percent.

In an environment characterized by skyrocketing violence, the ruling PAN is at an extreme disadvantage in this election cycle. The PRI is currently leading in the polls, but a united effort from the left could make the PRD competitive in the election.

The National Action Party

The PAN has lost much credibility as a result of the conservatively estimated 50,000 violent deaths attributed to the ongoing fight against the country's cartels, and Mexicans have been signaling that they want to see a new party in control of the government. President Felipe Calderon had been hoping to name former Finance Secretary Ernesto Cordero as his successor in the tradition of Mexico's past presidents, but the popularity of longtime PAN politician Vazquez Mota among both the public and the party's political elite pushed Calderon to shift his support to her.

Regardless of Vasquez Mota's candidacy, the campaign has suffered from the legacy of 12 years of PAN rule characterized by an uncertain national economic environment and escalating violence. Furthermore, the PAN can no longer claim to be the party coming in from the outside — a position from which the PAN successfully unseated the PRI after 70 years of rule in 2000.

The Institutional Revolutionary Party

Pena Nieto kicked off the presidential race with a considerable advantage. From the start, he projected a carefully cultivated charismatic persona, maintained excellent relationships with Mexico's major businessmen, media moguls and the core voters of the PRI, and is widely respected as a strong decision maker.

Pena Nieto has maintained his popularity, despite some previous difficulty. His opponents have pointed to gaffes such as an interview in which he was unable to recall his favorite books, as well as darker scandals from his past.

The Revolutionary Democratic Party

Though behind in the polls, the PRD cannot be entirely discounted, and Lopez Obrador, as the representative of Mexico's left, likely will pose the strongest challenge to Pena Nieto. A strong proponent of leftist reform in Mexico, Lopez Obrador has had a long history in Mexican politics. After his loss in the 2006 elections to Calderon, Lopez Obrador denounced the results, declared himself the legitimate president of Mexico and embarked on a yearslong tour of the country with his declared government. In the process, Lopez Obrador radicalized his position, moving to the far left of the political spectrum and creating a rift within the PRD.

This rift has seriously weakened the party over the past five years and left it with control over only a few governorships, which are a key aspect of gaining power in Mexico. Some 20 Mexican states have PRI governors that can wield their funding and political influence to the benefit of their party's candidate. Similarly, the PAN's control over federal institutions and their budgets will make it possible for the party to influence social expenditures to the benefit of its candidate. With only three states — Chiapas, Guerrero and likely Oaxaca (with a PRD/PAN alliance government) — and the Federal District headed by PRD allies, Lopez Obrador will be at a disadvantage.

However, in spite of this setback and the political splits caused by his reaction to the 2006 loss, Lopez Obrador was an effective and highly popular mayor of Mexico City from 2000-2005 and retains significant support and credibility as a voice for Mexico's political left. A crucial event for the left occurred when current Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard decided in mid-November not to enter the presidential race as a PRD candidate. Had Ebrard — whose respected record as mayor would have made him a popular presidential candidate — entered the race, the competition between the two would have further divided the PRD and likely knocked the left out of the competition in the presidential election and reduced the party's chances of gaining seats in the legislature.

With the PRD united behind Lopez Obrador, who has also reduced his inflammatory rhetoric and taken a more conciliatory approach to Mexico's varied power centers, the left has a credible chance of appealing to Mexico's approximately 50 million people living in poverty by promising greater attention to social welfare. While the PRI remains firmly in the lead, a united left under Lopez Obrador will prove to be a powerful force in this election.

Related Coverage of Mexico's Presidential Election:

Mexico's Plan to Create a Paramilitary Force
Mexico's Presidential Election and the Cartel War
New Mexican President, Same Cartel War?
The Geopolitics of Mexico: A Mountain Fortress Besieged