Russia's resurgence in the former Soviet Union countries prompted the launch of the EU Eastern Partnership program, which was initiated by Poland and Sweden but greatly supported by Lithuania. The program focuses on building relations with countries in both the Russian and EU periphery — Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia — and on bringing them closer to the European Union.
Lithuania has a strategic interest in the Eastern Partnership countries — especially Belarus and Ukraine — as a buffer to Russia's increasing influence. Vilnius has been one of the program's main proponents, since it considers Russia's resurgence a national security concern. In addition to supporting the Eastern Partnership, Lithuania has supported and hosted the Belarusian opposition and served as a major advocate for Ukraine's integration with Europe.
However, several recent EU-level actions have undermined Lithuania's wishes to see these countries grow closer to Europe. The imposition of sanctions against Belarus, the proposed boycott of the Euro 2012 soccer championships and the postponed Yalta summit in Ukraine show that Europe is isolating these countries further. This could push Belarus and (to a lesser extent) Ukraine closer to Russia at a time when Russia is already increasing its influence in those countries.
Lithuania has realized that its strategy of supporting the Belarusian opposition has not worked. Citing a lack of a common view within the European Union on how to proceed, Azubalis suggested asking the United States to help create a force capable of challenging the Belarusian government. This is unlikely to succeed — penetrating Belarus is difficult, and the United States has more pressing strategic matters elsewhere — but the suggestion highlights Lithuania's frustrations with EU policy and the divergent interests within the bloc.
Such divergence is not surprising given that the European Union is made up of 27 countries with different strategic interests. A major divergence in interests exists between Central European countries, which perceive Russia as a strategic threat, and Western European countries, which see Russia as less of a threat and are more focused on other issues. The European reaction to Azubalis' proposal is a case in point; in the interview, Azubalis said, "So far, I have received no reaction from Brussels."
Lithuania's frustration with Europe led Azubalis to call on the United States — which he referred to as a more pragmatic country — to help counter Russia's growing power on Lithuania's borders. Belarus is Vilnius' chief priority; Russia's placement of missiles in Belarus and Kaliningrad is a more immediate concern to Lithuania than events in Ukraine. Azubalis' statements reflect the urgency with which Vilnius views the situation in Belarus.
A lack of consensus on foreign policy issues in the European Union is to be expected, and so Lithuania is trying to recalibrate its policy in Belarus and other Eastern Partnership countries to better suit its interests. Although the United States' priorities lie elsewhere, by reaching out to Washington, Azubalis is highlighting the difficulties Vilnius faces with its current strategy and with the European Union's inability to craft a solution appropriate to Lithuania's interests.
