Timoshenko has been in jail for several months for political reasons (though President Viktor Yanukovich's administration denies that its motives are political), and there have been reports (often sensationalized) that her health has deteriorated during imprisonment. Several European officials, including European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, and the entire Dutch and Austrian governments have said they will boycott games played in Ukraine. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she would attend the tournament only if Timoshenko were freed.
Timoshenko's situation is not the only reason for the boycott. It is simply part of a larger trend of Kiev's increasing alienation from Europe. Ukraine, along with Poland, was chosen as a co-host for Euro 2012 in 2007 when the country had a pro-Western and EU-oriented government under former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko (with Timoshenko as prime minister). However, the country's political situation shifted significantly since then, with Yanukovich's election in 2010 ending the country's staunchly pro-Western orientation.
Despite early indications that Yanukovich would turn Ukraine firmly toward Russia — he made NATO membership illegal and signed a deal giving Russia's Black Sea Fleet continued access to the waters in exchange for natural gas — he did not break ties with the West entirely. Indeed, after tensions with Russia over energy issues increased in late 2010 and early 2011, Yanukovich increased cooperation and accelerated integration efforts with the European Union. To gain leverage over Moscow, Kiev also planned to sign an association and free trade agreement with the Europeans (an important precursor to potential EU membership) by the end of 2011. However, this occurred simultaneously with Yanukovich's domestic consolidation of power. The imprisonment of Timoshenko, Yanukovich's main political challenger, was a key development in this consolidation.
Timoshenko's detainment, and Yanukovich's refusal to reverse the verdict despite hints earlier in 2011 that he might do so, eventually derailed trade negotiations with the European Union and froze any meaningful EU integration prospects. More than four months after the agreements were expected to be signed, there has been little progress in the Timoshenko situation, which is becoming more prominent as Ukraine prepares for parliamentary elections in October. This reversal of Kiev's commitment to the European Union is the main reason many EU officials are boycotting Euro 2012.
Despite these issues, it is highly unlikely that the games will not be held in Ukraine. Lubkivsky said it would be impossible technically to move the site of the tournament at this point, just one month before kickoff (although Germany has been proposed as an alternative). Certainly, UEFA, international sponsors and the hundreds of thousands of fans attending the tournament are unlikely to boycott.
Furthermore, several European countries have recently spoken out against the boycott, including Norway, Slovakia and Italy. This support shows that the boycott is not coalescing into a pan-European movement. Co-host Poland has taken the lead in encouraging European politicians not to boycott and urging that the tournament be disconnected from the Timoshenko situation. Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski also alluded to the geopolitical importance of such a boycott, saying that it could push Ukraine further toward Russia. This demonstrates the importance, from both commercial and geopolitical perspectives, of Euro 2012's taking place in Ukraine as scheduled.
