Editor's Note: This analysis has been updated to reflect the latest events in Bahrain.
Update, April 19: Unknown assailants attacked four members of the Sahara Force India Formula One Team with Molotov cocktails on April 19 as the team was driving from the Formula One track to its hotel in Manama, the capital of Bahrain. Before the attack, activists and Bahraini security forces clashed on the highway where the attack later took place. The opposition February 14 Movement has conducted attacks on main highways throughout the capital for more than five months, and the employment of Molotov cocktails in attacks by the opposition — usually targeting security forces — has also become more frequent since the start of the year.
None of the Force India team members were injured in the April 19 attack, though two of the members have left Bahrain due to security concerns. In addition, the MRS team affiliated with the Porsche SuperCup series, which is set to take place along with the Formula One races, decided to withdraw from the race for the first time in the team's history of competing.
Summary
An improvised explosive device (IED) detonated April 9 near a police checkpoint at the entrance of the Shiite village of Akr in Bahrain, injuring seven policemen. The attack came three days after militant Bahraini opposition group Asab al-Thawra said on its website that it would soon begin setting off explosive devices in sensitive government areas in the predominantly Shiite villages outside the capital of Manama.
Primarily Shiite-led protests calling for the dismantling of the ruling al-Khalifa regime have occurred in Bahrain since February 2011, and until the beginning of this year protest tactics were relatively nonviolent. In January 2012, a previously nonviolent opposition group began to adapt more radical and militant rhetoric and tactics. This group, in addition to a recently created opposition group, continues to promote violent protest tactics, such as throwing Molotov cocktails at security forces and infrastructure. This escalation in violence appears to have evolved naturally, but if there was a sudden development in the groups' tactical sophistication, it would suggest that they are receiving help from an outside source.
The groups' growing violence is a concerning development because the Formula One Grand Prix, an international event that will attract thousands of tourists and many high-profile individuals, is scheduled to take place April 20-22 in Sakhir. Despite increased security during the racing events, it is possible that the opposition groups could carry out an attack during the high-profile event to damage the Bahraini government's public image.
Militant Opposition Groups
One of the most active of Bahrain's opposition groups is the February 14 Movement, a decentralized activist network of mostly youths that formed at an early stage of the unrest. Though it began as a fairly nonviolent organization, in early January 2012 the February 14 Movement began calling for an intensification of protest tactics. The group has since distributed instructions for building an IED (though the instructions were poorly written) and has threatened to attack the U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters and the U.S. Embassy in Bahrain.
In the past week, the February 14 Movement began posting threats issued by a new radical group, Asab al-Thawra, on its website. It is unclear when Asab al-Thawra was formed, but the group launched its own website April 5, 2012. Like the February 14 Movement, Asab al-Thawra's ultimate goal is to expel the al-Khalifa regime.
Asab al-Thawra's first high-profile attack occurred April 7, when it claimed responsibility for hijacking and setting fire to a bus owned by Cars Transport Corp., Bahrain's largest private transportation company. Cars Transport's buses are operated by Indians, Bangladeshis and Pakistanis, the groups that make up the majority of the vast foreign expatriate workforce in Bahrain. By threatening foreign workers — something the February 14 Movement also did in a Jan. 27 letter — Asab al-Thawra hopes to compel them to leave, thus undermining the Bahraini economy.
An even more alarming tactic that Asab al-Thawra has advocated is the deployment of IEDs. As stated previously, Asab al-Thawra threatened to attack near villages around Manama with IEDs mere days before the Akr blast. The group has not officially claimed responsibility for the explosion in Akr on April 9, but it is likely that militants from either the group or the February 14 Movement carried out the attack.
A day after the Akr bombing, a group of stick- and knife-wielding individuals in civilian clothes reportedly entered several Shiite villages and beat villagers in retaliation. Some unconfirmed witness reports said the assailants were Sunnis. These kinds of sectarian tensions further the overarching goal of Asab al-Thawra and the February 14 Movement by creating problems for the regime. However, it is also possible that the clashes were ordered by the regime to punish the Shiites.
Threats to the Formula One Race
To advance its goal of forcing the al-Khalifa regime from power, Asab al-Thawra has also said that it wants to shut down the Formula One race. The Formula One race is a unique opportunity for Bahraini opposition groups to once again to attract global attention to their cause and to get foreign pressure reapplied on the regime and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in any resultant government crackdown.
To that end, the group called for the destruction of vehicles belonging to security forces or individuals and companies associated with the al-Khalifa regime. Asab al-Thawra also warned individuals not to attend the races, called for a string of attacks to be carried out between April 18 and April 25 and vowed to conduct operations during the races that have not been previously utilized.
In the midst of these threats the Bahraini government has tried to assure the public and Formula One officials that security will be maintained. The Bahraini government has much to prove to the international community, and the events are an opportunity for Bahrain to present itself as a stable and legitimate democracy. Last year's races in Bahrain were canceled after the racecar drivers boycotted over the Bahraini government's human rights abuses. Now that there is some sense of stability in the country, the races are supposed to occur as scheduled, though the Formula One CEO has said that it is ultimately up to each racing team whether it will compete.
While the Formula One events will be held in southern Bahrain, roughly 30 kilometers (19 miles) southwest of Manama, the country's international airport is located on an island northeast of the mainland, requiring travel through Manama and the surrounding Shiite villages to reach the racetrack. The Bahraini government will step up security around main highways and event locations, likely with the help of the GCC's Peninsula Shield Force, which is periodically redeployed in Bahrain. Still, with the drive from the airport to the racetrack spanning nearly the entire length of the country and with numerous tourist sites and hotels in the area of the events, there will be many target opportunities for militant opposition groups.
Escalating Militant Tactics
Beyond the Formula One race, it is important to consider what is behind the escalation of the Bahraini opposition groups' violent tactics. At the moment it is likely that the shift toward violence came about naturally as individuals frustrated with the lack of change began to employ more drastic measures to achieve their goals. Only specific groups of individuals have promoted the use of militant tactics, while the rest of the opposition that has not been radicalized condemn such tactics. Additionally, the threats and attacks have built up gradually over several months.
There has not yet been evidence that the opposition groups have developed more sophisticated tactics, which would indicate that a foreign party was involved. It is true that the April 9 IED attack was the first of its kind in Bahrain since the start of the unrest, but Bahraini security officials described the explosive device as a pipe bomb attached to a container of gasoline, which does not indicate a significant jump in tactical sophistication. However, if there were large IEDs or vehicle-borne IEDs successfully deployed in a short span of time, that would indicate that the opposition had received help from a foreign actor, likely Iran.
The development of tactics used by Bahrain's militant opposition groups will be important to observe both in the short term, when it will affect the safety of the Formula One events, and in the long term, when it will help to identify whether a foreign power is involved in escalating the unrest.
