With more than half of the votes counted in Greece's May 6 parliamentary elections, traditional center-right party New Democracy (ND) appears securely in the lead. However, current polling indicates ND has received only about 20 percent of the total vote. If its lead holds, a new law would grant it an additional 50 seats, but that would still put it short of a parliamentary majority. ND will thus need to negotiate a coalition — a rare occurrence in Greek politics.

Traditionally, ND and the center-left Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) have been Greece's dominant political parties. Polling from the May 6 elections indicates they combined for about 33 percent of the vote — a marked contrast from the 2009 elections in which they combined for 77 percent of the vote. Greece's political system has generally ensured no more than minor representation for other parties, but voters frustrated with the country's economic woes have thrown their support to less conventional, heretofore marginalized parties. Based on current results, the Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) will be the second-largest party in parliament with approximately 16 percent of the vote, up from 4 percent in 2009.

Up to this point, ND leader Antonio Samaras has ruled out the idea of a coalition government with traditional rival PASOK, but as results have come in, leaders of both mainstream parties have hinted at their willingness to form a "unity" government of pro-EU parties — under the condition of renegotiating the terms of Greece's bailout with Brussels. Under electoral law, ND has three days to form a coalition that passes a vote of confidence in the parliament — 151 positive votes. Given its voiced determination not to enter into a coalition with PASOK throughout the campaign period, ND likely will drag out the process so as not to look too desperate. But the fear of losing long-held control of Greece's political arena to unconventional and far more radical parties will ultimately eclipse the rivalry between the traditional political elites.

Nonetheless, their grip on power is becoming more tenuous, and the representation of previously marginalized parties in the parliament will make it much more difficult for ND and PASOK to steer Greece in the direction of their choosing. Stratfor has long forecast a loss of control for Europe's traditional political elite; the shake-up in Greece is a reflection of that continuing trend.