Russia's economy ministry revised down its 2026-29 forecasts for oil and gas production, crude exports and economic growth, Reuters reported on May 12. The ministry lowered expected 2026 oil and gas condensate output to 10.22 million barrels per day, from 10.50 million barrels per day, and cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.4% from 1.3%.

The ministry kept its Urals oil price forecast at $59 per barrel for 2026, equal to Russia's fiscal-rule cut-off price, but lowered it to $50 per barrel for 2027-29 despite the price spike triggered by the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure. Moscow traditionally updates its three-year macroeconomic forecast twice a year, with the preliminary spring forecast serving as the foundation for the federal budget drafting process.