Pentagon officials and al Shabaab sources have confirmed that Ahmad Abdi Godane, the leader of al Shabaab in Somalia, was killed during a U.S. strike on a convoy carrying al Shabaab leadership on Sept. 1. The question that emerges now is how this will affect the militant organization. The death of Godane is not simply a direct loss to the organization and its capabilities. Considering the recent history of the group and the way Godane has consolidated his control over it, the successful strike could result in internal struggles over the leadership and ideological orientation of al Shabaab.

During 2013, Godane, despite being the emir of the organization since 2008, consolidated his centralized control over al Shabaab by eliminating several other al Shabaab leaders who were critical of his leadership. At the time, this resulted in a shift in al Shabaab’s tactics and activity both within Somalia and throughout the region, as witnessed in the Westgate attack in Kenya. The removal of Godane as the main decision-maker in al Shabaab could result in another shift in tactics or strategic focus for the organization, but the exact direction this shift will take depends heavily on which al Shabaab leaders are able to consolidate control over the group now.

Depending on which leaders were killed along with Godane in the Sept. 1 strike — a total of 11 leaders and militants were reported killed according to al Shabaab sources — two major potential interest groups within the group could compete for control. One would consist of close allies to Godane, with a regional and internationalist focus, while the other would be a Somali nationalist-focused group potentially headed by top commander Mukhtar Robow. Robow is currently the deputy leader of al Shabaab and has had conflicts with Godane in the past. Should Robow assume leadership of the group, a concentration of operations within southern Somalia could be expected while attacks outside of Somalia in places such as Kenya would lessen.

Due to the fractious nature of al Shabaab, and especially Godane's successful attempt to centralize control over the organization, the successful strike to eliminate him is likely to have ripple effects within the group. Internal conflict could emerge over leadership along with potential purges if al Shabaab members blame each other for betraying Godane and providing the intelligence that led to his death.